Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64
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Regarding the first number:
There's lot of numbers none of them hard yet.
How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)
The
attack rate or
transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced
R-nought or
r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.
WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5.
[13]
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58.
[23].
Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between
1.5 and 3.5. [5][6][7]
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.