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Originally Posted by panerd
I think that is exactly where that 3% number is coming from.
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Ya, the 3.4% is just 90,869 reported cases divided by reported 3,112 deaths (as of Tuesday).
By this rationale, the U.S. mortality rate was around 11% at the same time. (9 out of 80 through Tuesday, but now we're at something like 12 out of 223 so it's gone down already.)
The "real" mortality rate has to be way, way below both of those numbers. Otherwise China would have been decimated (as in REALLY decimated), and reports are they've stabilized and industry is starting to come back gradually. And the death rate of un-reported cases would have to be higher than the death rate of reported cases. Which doesn't seem possible.
I Lived Through SARS and Reported on Ebola. These Are the Questions We Should Be Asking About Coronavirus. — ProPublica
Apparently 80% of even the reported cases got better without any particular medical intervention. Not even counting the people who get better on their own and never seek medical care.
https://www.cnsnews.com/article/nati...eously-recover
Meanwhile at least two people from my office are home with a cough and fever. I don't know if they're going into get treated, or if there's even testing available around here, but, I could understand people just preferring to wait it out at home rather than become a part of a national and world news story unless things get too bad. Americans are good at avoiding the doctor.