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Old 06-08-2020, 06:58 AM   #296
Edward64
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Article on V shaped recovery.

Some additional evidence (to the jobs report) that economy is recovering

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/06/all-...-it-right.html
Quote:
The data now “suggests May job gains are only the beginning here,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets. “The recovery path there suggests a June payroll print at north of 10 million is a reasonable starting point for the conversation.”

If that number is anywhere accurate, it would suggest a staggering turnaround and get economists talking again about a possible V-shaped recovery off what is potentially the shortest recession in U.S. history. Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, wondered in a tweet whether “the recession [lasted] only two months.”
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Housing purchases and vehicle sales are two strong bellwether signals that showed significant improvement in data released earlier this week.

I can easily believe auto and home. I assume the "payroll print at north of 10 million" means they plan on processing 10M new paychecks in June vs May implying 10M new jobs/returned to jobs (article wasn't too clear on that but that was my inference).

Overall, my take is it's still too soon to tell and everything seems so "fragile" right now. But good data points for sure.

(Market futures are up +224 so Fri doesn't seem to be a fluke)

Last edited by Edward64 : 06-08-2020 at 07:01 AM.
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