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Brian Swartz · 06-13-2017, 06:20 PM

2053 Preview

Manager Ranking: 1st(unchanged), 34.3k points, almost exactly the same as last year's total. Hugoboy continues to gain slowly in second, while Nevstar keeps switching places in 3rd and 4th with one of the other managers.

Anil Mehul(69%, 7.47, -0.23)

Decided to put this at the top since it doesn't really make sense at the end of the singles rundown, being a doubles guy now. He's #3 there, which looks to be his peak. Singles is at 232nd, bouncing back a little, and eventually he'll get back into the challenger range somewhere. Right now he'd be a typical journeyman in the 50-100 range I think. Doubles training is nearly complete at 98/100, putting his trainer eval at 5.16(+0.08 this year). Four years of work left there, and it's definitely slowing down. I still think he reaches at least 5.3, maybe 5.4 at best. Hoping to make that, but we'll see.

1. Mateo Kaspar(96%, 9.13, +0.17)

Best I've ever seen. Strong, mentally tough, technically as good as anyone in the game both on serve and from the baseline. One runs out of superlatives at times.

2. Prakash Mooljee(87%, 8.67, -0.04)

Still holding on well for his age(28 and a half).

3. Gillo Fangio(94%, 8.79, +0.06)

Not the best improvement this year, but still going upwards and he should have enough to challenge for the #2. Consistency is the key.

4. Johnny Browne(90%, 8.62, +0.01)

Still basically at his peak, Browne appears to have 'gone doubles' a little early here. If so, we could see him fade. I say 'early', but it might not be when you consider the odds of competing with Kaspar for titles.

5. Luc Janin(90%, 8.51, -0.19)

Athleticism is fading fast of course, but that's not good enough reason for this kind of decline. Looks like he peaked a year ago. If attention is not paid he'd could plummet.

6. Ariel Borja(96%, 8.34, -0.11)

Same manager as Janin. Notice a pattern here? Inexcusable for a player so near his athletic prime. Borja is immensely strong but hasn't developed the baseline game to take advantage of that enough.

7. Guus Dircx(97%, 8.60, +0.13)

Starting to slow down athletically but still excellent, Dircx's technique is getting more respectable and he's up from 13th. I seem him snagging the #5 spot this year in a more modest move, and probably breaking into the Top 4 the year afterwards. I don't think his shotmaking is good enough to allow him to do that this season.

8. Martin Zarco(96%, 8.58, +0.13)

I think Zarco will have a much better career than Dircx when all is said and done. Two reasons for that; he's built for the long haul, and he has as much a chance as anyone(not much) to be a fly in Kaspar's ointment with his prowess on clay. You can see the depth of the top players, even though still improving, here though; a lot will depend on the draws but I think Zarco is clearly the #2 in the world on clay right now.

9. Khasan Zakirov(85%, 8.34, -0.03)

Still fighting gamely with an elite serve and good athleticism, it isn't so much that Zakirov has lost that much; he's simply been surpassed by better players.

10. Sigmund Kronecker(93%, 8.57, +0.14)

Kronecker was first mentioned in this rundown a year ago, when he was ranked just 23rd and coming off a poorly-scheduled off-season. He spent some wasted time on doubles probably earlier in his career which could have delayed his development; all indications are he's doing his best to make up for it, and he's particularly balanced out a situation in which his serve was a weaknesses a year ago. Not anymore; he's ready to make the tour finals this year at either Borja or Janin's expense.

16. Milos Schmucker(94%, 8.53, +0.17)

I'm wrong fairly often but I must say I hit the nail on the head with this guy last year. He was 18th at the time: 'push up a bit more, but he probably needs another year'. That's exactly what happened as Milos gained just two positions. It's a big gain though, putting him into the next circle as a guy who'll be seeded everywhere. More importantly, he's got enough technique to much more appropriately complement a strong mental game and adequate athleticism now. I expect him to push past the veterans in the lower teens this year. He's Top 10 quality now, but I don't know that he gets there merely because of how deep that group is at the moment. Should be knocking on the door by year's end however.

19. Hsuang-tsung Teng(97%, 8.28, +0.13)

The pride of New Zealand made a good move up from 33rd a year ago, but his technique is still lacking quite a bit. A lot like Schmucker last year, he needs to keep working before his strength and mental toughness can really put him over the top against the vets ahead of him. Good endurance is another factor in his favor in making the needed progress.

21. Shreya Ujjaval(82%, 8.01, -0.19)

30 years old, and basically in the same spot he was when he was 28. It appears he's finally making the turn to doubles, which makes replacing him on the national team as #2 singles all the more important.

24. Benno Duhr(97%, 7.81, +0.17)

A modest gain from 31st a year ago. Average athleticism and a baseline game that is very lacking mean his upside is limited.

26. Ruslan Strelkov(93%, 7.89, +0.06)

Same spot he was in last year; Strelkov looks like he's going to spend his career in the 20s. Elite serve and endurance but not much to go with it. Definitely a guy who could have been better than he has ended up.

27. Alexandros Maliagros(93%, 7.95, ??)

It's time to get to know Greece's top dog. A bushy-haired man, Maliagros has excellent athleticism but the usual diseases of too much work on doubles, not enough on his rally game, and the mental aspect is weak with him also. Not a guy who'll rise enough to worry about IMO.

29. Ruben Piazzola(99%, 8.12, +0.08)

The youngest player in the Top 32, Piazzola has a bright future and is up from 42nd a year ago. Athleticism and endurance he has, and the serve is looking good for his age(turns 22 shortly). All depends on how much he can improve his skill. Last year I pegged him as a future Top-10 guy, and nothing's happened to change my mind.

30. Valentin Rosenberg(98%, 8.11, ??)

Another new guy, Rosenberg made a big move from I think somewhere around 70th or so last year; I know for sure he wasn't Top 50 but that's about it. He checks all the boxes except for baseline play, a typical pattern. Still 22, Valentin appears to be very comparable to Piazzola. Maybe a poor man's version to an extent but he's definitely one to watch as a probably Top 10 in the future.

33. Ritwik Dudwadkar(98%, 8.45, +0.28)

A lot of things can happen both ways, but right now Dudwadkar is just 23 ranking points out of being seeded at the Australian Open. Best case would be for him to take care of that at a tier-1 challenger next week; if not I'll have to decide whether to enter him in a 250 to try and get enough points. Regardless, it's time for him to make the jump to being a true professional here. He began physical decline a couple of months ago, and objectively a reasonable goal for him would be Top 16 this year. That will require him to play roughly up to his abilities though, and that's something he's never consistently done. It's all about the focus for Dudwadkar. Up from 75th a year ago, but it was late for him to make that push.

34. Alexey Alenichev(99%, 7.52, ??)

Good serve, meh everywhere else for this 22-year-old Russian. He seems to have stagnated, but he's good enough to gradually improve -- not good enough to impress anyone.

38. Xavier Dorso(98%, 7.92, ??)

Also 22, this Frenchman stands out for two reasons: highly talented(5.0), and a rarity in having a proper training ratio(not overtraining serve at the expense of skill). Athleticism, endurance, mental game are all decent but not better so he's not a major threat, but good enough to make at least some noise. That's particularly true if he continues to be well-handled.

39. Gregory Mackenzie(99%, 7.96, ??)

The latest American to come through the ranks. Good, but poor endurance and questionable baseline development. Still only 21 though, so there is some time.

44. Shyam Senepathy(87%, 7.52, +0.02)

A career-best ranking despite being past his peak significantly here. We may not be what we once were, but four Top-50 players isn't too shabby either.

61. Alexei Nikitin(100%, 7.88, +0.44)

Last year Nitikin was noted as the only Top-100 teen; he's still the best player his age, up 30 spots from 91st. Still really good for his age, immensely strong, good mental game, and serve is still a disaster. He's a comer, it's just going to take another couple of years.

No Top-100 teenagers this year.

65(J). Sushant Chiba(77%, 4.18, +1.10)

My strong-willed but cement-footed junior continues to progress. He'll be looking to establish himself at tier-3 this year; usually I start with hopes of pushing higher but am never really able to compete against the 18-year-olds in the top events. There are only four players younger and higher-ranked, and only one of them is significantly higher. Chiba's doing fine, and as usual we'll just see how things settle out in a few months.

06-13-2017, 06:20 PM	#631
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2053 Preview Manager Ranking: 1st(unchanged), 34.3k points, almost exactly the same as last year's total. Hugoboy continues to gain slowly in second, while Nevstar keeps switching places in 3rd and 4th with one of the other managers. Anil Mehul(69%, 7.47, -0.23) Decided to put this at the top since it doesn't really make sense at the end of the singles rundown, being a doubles guy now. He's #3 there, which looks to be his peak. Singles is at 232nd, bouncing back a little, and eventually he'll get back into the challenger range somewhere. Right now he'd be a typical journeyman in the 50-100 range I think. Doubles training is nearly complete at 98/100, putting his trainer eval at 5.16(+0.08 this year). Four years of work left there, and it's definitely slowing down. I still think he reaches at least 5.3, maybe 5.4 at best. Hoping to make that, but we'll see. 1. Mateo Kaspar(96%, 9.13, +0.17) Best I've ever seen. Strong, mentally tough, technically as good as anyone in the game both on serve and from the baseline. One runs out of superlatives at times. 2. Prakash Mooljee(87%, 8.67, -0.04) Still holding on well for his age(28 and a half). 3. Gillo Fangio(94%, 8.79, +0.06) Not the best improvement this year, but still going upwards and he should have enough to challenge for the #2. Consistency is the key. 4. Johnny Browne(90%, 8.62, +0.01) Still basically at his peak, Browne appears to have 'gone doubles' a little early here. If so, we could see him fade. I say 'early', but it might not be when you consider the odds of competing with Kaspar for titles. 5. Luc Janin(90%, 8.51, -0.19) Athleticism is fading fast of course, but that's not good enough reason for this kind of decline. Looks like he peaked a year ago. If attention is not paid he'd could plummet. 6. Ariel Borja(96%, 8.34, -0.11) Same manager as Janin. Notice a pattern here? Inexcusable for a player so near his athletic prime. Borja is immensely strong but hasn't developed the baseline game to take advantage of that enough. 7. Guus Dircx(97%, 8.60, +0.13) Starting to slow down athletically but still excellent, Dircx's technique is getting more respectable and he's up from 13th. I seem him snagging the #5 spot this year in a more modest move, and probably breaking into the Top 4 the year afterwards. I don't think his shotmaking is good enough to allow him to do that this season. 8. Martin Zarco(96%, 8.58, +0.13) I think Zarco will have a much better career than Dircx when all is said and done. Two reasons for that; he's built for the long haul, and he has as much a chance as anyone(not much) to be a fly in Kaspar's ointment with his prowess on clay. You can see the depth of the top players, even though still improving, here though; a lot will depend on the draws but I think Zarco is clearly the #2 in the world on clay right now. 9. Khasan Zakirov(85%, 8.34, -0.03) Still fighting gamely with an elite serve and good athleticism, it isn't so much that Zakirov has lost that much; he's simply been surpassed by better players. 10. Sigmund Kronecker(93%, 8.57, +0.14) Kronecker was first mentioned in this rundown a year ago, when he was ranked just 23rd and coming off a poorly-scheduled off-season. He spent some wasted time on doubles probably earlier in his career which could have delayed his development; all indications are he's doing his best to make up for it, and he's particularly balanced out a situation in which his serve was a weaknesses a year ago. Not anymore; he's ready to make the tour finals this year at either Borja or Janin's expense. 16. Milos Schmucker(94%, 8.53, +0.17) I'm wrong fairly often but I must say I hit the nail on the head with this guy last year. He was 18th at the time: 'push up a bit more, but he probably needs another year'. That's exactly what happened as Milos gained just two positions. It's a big gain though, putting him into the next circle as a guy who'll be seeded everywhere. More importantly, he's got enough technique to much more appropriately complement a strong mental game and adequate athleticism now. I expect him to push past the veterans in the lower teens this year. He's Top 10 quality now, but I don't know that he gets there merely because of how deep that group is at the moment. Should be knocking on the door by year's end however. 19. Hsuang-tsung Teng(97%, 8.28, +0.13) The pride of New Zealand made a good move up from 33rd a year ago, but his technique is still lacking quite a bit. A lot like Schmucker last year, he needs to keep working before his strength and mental toughness can really put him over the top against the vets ahead of him. Good endurance is another factor in his favor in making the needed progress. 21. Shreya Ujjaval(82%, 8.01, -0.19) 30 years old, and basically in the same spot he was when he was 28. It appears he's finally making the turn to doubles, which makes replacing him on the national team as #2 singles all the more important. 24. Benno Duhr(97%, 7.81, +0.17) A modest gain from 31st a year ago. Average athleticism and a baseline game that is very lacking mean his upside is limited. 26. Ruslan Strelkov(93%, 7.89, +0.06) Same spot he was in last year; Strelkov looks like he's going to spend his career in the 20s. Elite serve and endurance but not much to go with it. Definitely a guy who could have been better than he has ended up. 27. Alexandros Maliagros(93%, 7.95, ??) It's time to get to know Greece's top dog. A bushy-haired man, Maliagros has excellent athleticism but the usual diseases of too much work on doubles, not enough on his rally game, and the mental aspect is weak with him also. Not a guy who'll rise enough to worry about IMO. 29. Ruben Piazzola(99%, 8.12, +0.08) The youngest player in the Top 32, Piazzola has a bright future and is up from 42nd a year ago. Athleticism and endurance he has, and the serve is looking good for his age(turns 22 shortly). All depends on how much he can improve his skill. Last year I pegged him as a future Top-10 guy, and nothing's happened to change my mind. 30. Valentin Rosenberg(98%, 8.11, ??) Another new guy, Rosenberg made a big move from I think somewhere around 70th or so last year; I know for sure he wasn't Top 50 but that's about it. He checks all the boxes except for baseline play, a typical pattern. Still 22, Valentin appears to be very comparable to Piazzola. Maybe a poor man's version to an extent but he's definitely one to watch as a probably Top 10 in the future. 33. Ritwik Dudwadkar(98%, 8.45, +0.28) A lot of things can happen both ways, but right now Dudwadkar is just 23 ranking points out of being seeded at the Australian Open. Best case would be for him to take care of that at a tier-1 challenger next week; if not I'll have to decide whether to enter him in a 250 to try and get enough points. Regardless, it's time for him to make the jump to being a true professional here. He began physical decline a couple of months ago, and objectively a reasonable goal for him would be Top 16 this year. That will require him to play roughly up to his abilities though, and that's something he's never consistently done. It's all about the focus for Dudwadkar. Up from 75th a year ago, but it was late for him to make that push. 34. Alexey Alenichev(99%, 7.52, ??) Good serve, meh everywhere else for this 22-year-old Russian. He seems to have stagnated, but he's good enough to gradually improve -- not good enough to impress anyone. 38. Xavier Dorso(98%, 7.92, ??) Also 22, this Frenchman stands out for two reasons: highly talented(5.0), and a rarity in having a proper training ratio(not overtraining serve at the expense of skill). Athleticism, endurance, mental game are all decent but not better so he's not a major threat, but good enough to make at least some noise. That's particularly true if he continues to be well-handled. 39. Gregory Mackenzie(99%, 7.96, ??) The latest American to come through the ranks. Good, but poor endurance and questionable baseline development. Still only 21 though, so there is some time. 44. Shyam Senepathy(87%, 7.52, +0.02) A career-best ranking despite being past his peak significantly here. We may not be what we once were, but four Top-50 players isn't too shabby either. 61. Alexei Nikitin(100%, 7.88, +0.44) Last year Nitikin was noted as the only Top-100 teen; he's still the best player his age, up 30 spots from 91st. Still really good for his age, immensely strong, good mental game, and serve is still a disaster. He's a comer, it's just going to take another couple of years. No Top-100 teenagers this year. 65(J). Sushant Chiba(77%, 4.18, +1.10) My strong-willed but cement-footed junior continues to progress. He'll be looking to establish himself at tier-3 this year; usually I start with hopes of pushing higher but am never really able to compete against the 18-year-olds in the top events. There are only four players younger and higher-ranked, and only one of them is significantly higher. Chiba's doing fine, and as usual we'll just see how things settle out in a few months.