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Old 07-03-2018, 01:13 PM   #815
Brian Swartz
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2006
Special Report: Embrace the Chaos

I was too busy to really spend the time on a ranking update after Q1, but given all the nonsense that's unfolded in the clay season(we'll get to that), I didn't want to wait till after Wimbledon. So let's take a look at the major action now as the tour prepares for Roland Garros(tomorrow and the next day).

Australian Open

Form totally held here, with Mateo Kaspar winning his 10th straight. For the fourth year in a row, it was Ritwik Dudwadkar opposing him in the final. I don't even know what to say anymore about the King winning this every season for a decade. He had to come from two sets down against the Black Prince in the semis, while Hamal Sbai reached his first Slam SF. (15) Kenneth Brasher and (14) Brian Meiklejohn were notable surprise quarterfinalists, although only by ranking in Meiklejohn's case. Soon he'll be a fixture.

Indian Wells

Stanley Edleman shows signs of life with a nice QF run. Meiklejohn made it there as well. The US gets a couple of semifinalists in Cordova and Pargeter(d. Dudwadkar in QFs), but both lost to the Kaspars. Karl Kaspar had a surprisingly easy straight-set win over the legendary Mateo, as he's making a serious push this year to throw off his shadow.

Miami

Skipping Masters events comes back to bite you. I think M. Kaspar was banned from this one due to last year's absences. Ritwik Dudwadkar was top-seeded, almost lost to Brasher in the quarters, and did lose to Stuart Pargeter in the semis. Hamal Sbai made the other semi, losing to the Black Prince. K. Kaspar takes a second straight Masters, and convincingly. He now has three for the career.

Clay Chaos

Ok so here's where it gets crazy. Almost nothing that's happened on the dirt makes any sense. I'll break this down into how the current(pre-RG) Top 10 has fared on the big clay events.


** Ritwik Dudwadkar -- Is back on top, barely, due to the failings of King Mateo. A week short of his 30th birthday and he's #1 again. Amazing. Skipped Monte Carlo, won the title in Madrid, and then lost in the first round of Rome to unseeded Irishman John Hart. How do you lose in the first round and get elevated to the top player in the world? Well, he had an early exit here last year(R3), and also ...

** Mateo Kaspar -- Skipped Monte Carlo, lost in the QFs of Madrid & Rome. That's consistent at least, and holds with the idea that on clay he's no longer elite at 31. That's making the large assumption that anyone is elite on clay these days. Unseeded Ali Kaihep and #7 Hugo Cordova beat him. Cordova is a strong clay player so that one makes sense.

** Karl Kaspar -- No Monte Carlo, second round at Madrid(Guadiana), first round at Rome(Meikeljohn). This is the guy who just pulled off the IW/Miami double and won Roland Garros last year for his maiden Slam title. Both losses were to credible clay players, but still.

** Hamal Sbai -- Won Monte Carlo, and Barcelona(500) the week after for good measure. Finalist in Madrid(l. Dudwadkar). Great so far. Then lost to Castegali in the third round of Rome. He's got the best clay resume so far, but still lost to a guy down in the teens.

** Stuart Pargeter -- Finalist in Monte Carlo, early loss in Barcelona, Madrid QF(l. Sbai), Rome R3(that epic collapse against Chiba).

** Gregory Mackenzie -- Monte Carlo QF, Madrid SF(l. Dudwadkar, winning ONE game), Rome F(l. Chiba, winning TWO games). Good results overall. Very good. But how do you fall on your face like that after getting that far??

** Hugo Cordova -- Monte Carlo SF, Madrid QF(close loss to Dudwadkar), Rome SF(3-setter to Chiba). Consistent at least, which is more than we can say for most. And the win over Kaspar is a big one.

** Gilberto Chinaglia -- Monte Carlo SF, Madrid R3(l. Kaihep), Rome R2(l. [b]Benjamin Abanades). I'm sorry, who again?? Remember two years ago that Chinaglia was RG champion.

** Tristan Allende -- Consistent at least. He hasn't gotten by the third round in any of them.

** Sushant Chiba -- Monte Carlo QF, R1 Madrid(l. Abanades), winner at Rome as 13-seed. Loses to an unknown in Madrid after winning there last year, dropping from him from as high as 9th to 14th. Then wins Rome the next week, getting back up to 10th.

So who wins RG? Pick almost anybody in the Top 20 and I'll be hard pressed to say you're wrong. Only Top 10 player who doesn't have a realistic chance is Allende. And then there's the others who have upset multiple player in this group in recent weeks. It's been a long time, if ever, since I've seen something this wide-open. I think both of my guys could potentially win. I think they could also potentially lose in round of 32.
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