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Old 08-03-2018, 06:11 AM   #842
Brian Swartz
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2006
Special Report: A Wealth of Possibilities

I wanted to do a follow-up on the usual annual preview post, because this year sets up as being a wide-open competition at the top of the rankings. That's partly because of a real historical anomaly. Any of my main players, at their best, would be expected to wipe the floor with any of the current top contenders. Usually I've topped out at 8.75-8.8(Dudwadkar hit the high-water mark at 8.83). Here's the players who I think have a shot at it this season:

** Karl Kaspar(obviously) - 8.57
** Mateo Kaspar - 8.55
** Ritwik Dudwadkar - 8.59
** Hamal Sbai - 8.65
** Sushant Chiba - 8.51
** Brian Meikeljohn - 8.57

First I should give an honorable mention to John Hart, who I think is a better prospect than any player I've ever managed, due to his exceptional talent and endurance. I haven't ever had a 5.0 skill, 4.0 serve player at age 23. He's just got too far to go in the rankings at 14th, and rated at 8.47 is just below this group so it'll take him some time. Starting next year though, he could well be mentioned as the 'best player on paper'.

Most years there's an obvious #1. Sometimes two candidates, at most three for a bit of a transition time. In this case though, Karl is hot right now and he's obviously got the inside track. If he slips, Mateo is there but with his work right now on the doubles he'll probably keep declining, so he'd have to start strong. Hamal can do it if he can put everything together for once, and Ritwik really seemed to hit a cold stretch which he'd have to reverse. Sushant and Brian are longer-shots but they are both still improving.

Usually this kind of thing is about management and who has the more-developed player. Proper preparation for tournaments will be massive this season; I can't stress that point enough. The bonus for being in the form 'sweet spot' will swing many matches and points I expect. Beyond that though, it should be a war and simply come down to who is playing better at the time. Karl is the flavor of the month right now but the winds of momentum could change at any time. I've never seen a year so uncertain, with so many good-but-not-great players and no vaguely dominant ones. I'm going to go into every big event not having a clear picture of who will win it. It has the potential to be highly chaotic, and fascinating.

I also rather envy thehitcat, who's done a great job with his young players and is poised, after a year or two longer, to be the top-performing manager for a while. I am of course sandbagging the situation as mentioned for my next and final generation, but Hart/Hughes are definitely superior to Chiba/Kasaravalli, and I expect to take a back seat in the interim.
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