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DOLA: BTW another faulty reasoning, which is true now but not when CR posted his analysis, is that the odds of discovering Pass's auroa for today are 0. Tomorrow we get a 20% chance again. But at this point, by Day 5, we'll only have a 73% chance of finding ONE person's aura.
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I suck at statistics, but if we have 3 players in there and they each have a 20% chance of being identified, we will have a better than average chance that at least one of them will be revealed to us. And we win either way, because he's either revealed as a villager and can be released (starting a COT), or as a wolf and can be lynched.
Your statement implies that by day 5 we're likely to only have one player identified. I don't think that's right.