Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit
I suck at statistics, but if we have 3 players in there and they each have a 20% chance of being identified, we will have a better than average chance that at least one of them will be revealed to us. And we win either way, because he's either revealed as a villager and can be released (starting a COT), or as a wolf and can be lynched.
Your statement implies that by day 5 we're likely to only have one player identified. I don't think that's right.
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Yeah the math on that is tricky. I'm having a little trouble putting it together. But, according to my calculations, there's only a 4% chance that we learn 0 people's auras by Day 5. But remember just because we learn an aura doesn't find us a wolf. Randomly picking someone to lynch is going to produce better results until we've got a fairly long timetable.