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Brian Swartz · 01-13-2018, 11:58 AM

2057 Preview

1. Mateo Kaspar(88%, 8.97, -0.14)

First big decline ... and a little too big, I think his skill will bounce back up a bit. Still there's no question that Kaspar is going to start being more vulnerable. He may even lose the rare match on hardcourts this year. In his favor is the fact that almost all of the other top players are in decline as well. It's been a great era, but it's now clearly on the far side of the peak. I didn't bother with the Gorritipe comparion post this year, but suffice to say if Kaspar has another year like the last one, he'll draw virtually even.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(92%, 8.81, -0.02)

Not actually worse, it just looks like it. Skill/service are still at 5.3/4.0, but serve made it to 4.1 briefly and they did improve slightly over the course of the year. Just not enough to register as a higher amount, and athleticism of course dipped a bit which is the reason for the small decrease. This next year is actually probably going to be his best. Dudwadkar is the one player not over the hill yet, but the slowdown in xp gains has started to be noticeable and will become more so.

All of which means he will be playing the role of legacy spoiler now, much like Mehul did with Iglar many years ago. Ritwik will still lose to Kaspar most of the time, even almost all of the time, but he probably gets in another win or two here or there to take a bit of his thunder and slow down his record-setting pace.

3. Guus Dircx(88%, 8.67, -0.13)

Still quite good. These guys aren't falling off a cliff at this point; they're just a step back of what they used to be.

4. Martin Zarco(88%, 8.64, -0.09)

5. Hsuang-tsung Teng(89%, 8.52, -0.03)

Teng hasn't fallen off as much, but still looks like the odd man out.

6. Gillo Fangio(84%, 8.49, -0.23)

That's pretty ugly, but Fangio and Zarco have both trained their doubles abilities up at least halfway. Fangio dropped three spots to 8th and nearly further, but a big finish gained him almost all the territory he lost. Temporarily, anyway.

7. Ruben Piazzola(91%, 8.39, -0.04)

Despite a small drop here, this should be Piazzola's best year. In any case he's not falling as fast as those ahead of him will, so I expect the top Chilean to see somewhat better results. Not much though; he's still just not as good as the older players around him.

8. Prakash Mooljee(78%, 8.23, -0.11)

As good as one can expect. It'll be interesting to see who picks him up, and what happens to him over the next couple of years.

9. Gilberto Chinaglia(95%, 8.14, ??)

Rare to have a Top-10 player who wasn't even ranking high enough to garner an evaluation the year before. Chinaglia is unquestionably the surprise player of 2056. He's overrated somewhat for his abilities. Athleticism is decent but nothing special and skill isn't on the same par as other elite players. An excellent serve and clay mastery are an unusual tandem, but he's going to improve for at least two more years so he'll be around a while as his betters decline.

10. Alexey Nikitin(94%, 8.50, +0.03)

Still no evidence of activity, which is unfortunate. He could really have made some more headway and been an interesting force. Still could be to a lesser degree, if his manager returns, but after several months off that seems unlikely.

7 of the Top 8 are in significant decline now, and add Nikitin into the mix and the quality of top-flight tennis will take a nosedive here. For the first time in several years, fresh blood is badly needed.

11. Dick Blake(94%, 8.37, +0.01)

Disappointing; one would hope for greater improvement from a still-young player. Still should be enough for Blake to move up a couple spots and get onto the first page.

12. Matthew Panter(90%, 8.33, +0.03)

Briefly made it up to 10th this year, but he's now seen his best tennis. Hanging out just beyond the first page is about the best we can hope for from him.

13. Karl Kaspar(99%, 8.16, ??)

Runner-up for surprise of the year. Only 22 and already knocking on that Top-10 door. Not nearly the player older brother Mateo is, but my pick for heir apparent. Karl is strong and has very well-developed technique for his age. I don't think he's good enough to push much higher just yet, but time is most definitely on Karl's side, and we already have proof that his manager knows what he's doing.

15. Gregory Mackenzie(93%, 8.36, -0.02)

Like Blake, he just didn't get the job done training this year. On the court, he's ranked exactly where he was as well. Elite serve but hasn't improved his play at the back of the court as he should have. I said last season he'd soon become the top American. Should have, and probably still should, but not yet.

17. Cristian Castelgali(94%, 8.30, ??)

For the first time in memory, Mexico has a top-quality player. Has the technique of a guy ready to challenge at the top level, and a good mental game, but athleticism holds him back somewhat. Still ready to challenge for the Top 10, though perhaps not quite there yet.

20. Hamal Sbai(96%, 8.44, ??)

Sbai is the reason for Morocco's rise, and is that rare player who actually hasn't put enough effort into his serve. Elite baseline play, good mental game and above-average speed. Sbai is somewhat underrated where he is, and should be Top 10 before the year's out. Good endurance gives him plenty to work with in continuing to improve. Definitely ought to be Top 5 at a minimum eventually. Hamal is already the second-best player in Morrocan history; none have ever done better than 14th, a record that should fall soon. Rates as the world's 8th-best on paper right now.

24. Stuart Pargeter(96%, 8.17, +0.02)

Surprised to see him slip a spot in the rankings last year. Pargeter should be improving more than this, but he's still got time to make a move higher.

29. Rob Lock(97%, 7.96, ??)

Here come the new Americans. Lock is 22 years old, athletic and reasonably dedicated. Still has work to do.

30. Hugo Cordova(97%, 7.86, ??)

Here's a strange profile. Also 22, Cordova already has the best serve I've ever seen(4.4!). He also is slow with a poor mental game, and really has nothing else much to recommend him yet, having put all of his eggs in that one basket. It does make him a frustrating opponent because of how hard it is to break him. I forsee many tiebreak-heavy matches in Hugo's future.

54. Stanley Edleman(100%, 7.79, +0.39)

Edleman has been slightly surpassed in the rankings for the moment by juniormate Svajnovic(49th). Nearly cut last year's mark of 100th in half, winning a pair of Slam matches along with four Challenger titles and numerous finals. This year he should continue moving upwards, probably cracking the Top 32.

64. Sushant Chiba(99%, 7.69, +0.53)

Edleman's been good; Chiba's improvement has been better, and he should at least pull even with the US prodigy this year. Both figure to be among the top Challenger-level players and, along with Svajnovic, Prachuab(in the low 80s), and a few others, pushing to break into the big-time. Chiba had six Challenger titles this year, none of them larger than tier-2. One final, two semis, four QFs, and one exit earlier as well. He'll be looking to be more consistent -- most of the early losses were as he was breaking in first half of the year -- and push into the bigger tournaments. He's got a little over half the necessary points to escape Challenger level, and exceeded expectations(Top 100 is all I was looking for). I figure he's close to breaking out but not quite at the end of the year, somewhere around 40th.

01-13-2018, 11:58 AM	#757
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2057 Preview 1. Mateo Kaspar(88%, 8.97, -0.14) First big decline ... and a little too big, I think his skill will bounce back up a bit. Still there's no question that Kaspar is going to start being more vulnerable. He may even lose the rare match on hardcourts this year. In his favor is the fact that almost all of the other top players are in decline as well. It's been a great era, but it's now clearly on the far side of the peak. I didn't bother with the Gorritipe comparion post this year, but suffice to say if Kaspar has another year like the last one, he'll draw virtually even. 2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(92%, 8.81, -0.02) Not actually worse, it just looks like it. Skill/service are still at 5.3/4.0, but serve made it to 4.1 briefly and they did improve slightly over the course of the year. Just not enough to register as a higher amount, and athleticism of course dipped a bit which is the reason for the small decrease. This next year is actually probably going to be his best. Dudwadkar is the one player not over the hill yet, but the slowdown in xp gains has started to be noticeable and will become more so. All of which means he will be playing the role of legacy spoiler now, much like Mehul did with Iglar many years ago. Ritwik will still lose to Kaspar most of the time, even almost all of the time, but he probably gets in another win or two here or there to take a bit of his thunder and slow down his record-setting pace. 3. Guus Dircx(88%, 8.67, -0.13) Still quite good. These guys aren't falling off a cliff at this point; they're just a step back of what they used to be. 4. Martin Zarco(88%, 8.64, -0.09) 5. Hsuang-tsung Teng(89%, 8.52, -0.03) Teng hasn't fallen off as much, but still looks like the odd man out. 6. Gillo Fangio(84%, 8.49, -0.23) That's pretty ugly, but Fangio and Zarco have both trained their doubles abilities up at least halfway. Fangio dropped three spots to 8th and nearly further, but a big finish gained him almost all the territory he lost. Temporarily, anyway. 7. Ruben Piazzola(91%, 8.39, -0.04) Despite a small drop here, this should be Piazzola's best year. In any case he's not falling as fast as those ahead of him will, so I expect the top Chilean to see somewhat better results. Not much though; he's still just not as good as the older players around him. 8. Prakash Mooljee(78%, 8.23, -0.11) As good as one can expect. It'll be interesting to see who picks him up, and what happens to him over the next couple of years. 9. Gilberto Chinaglia(95%, 8.14, ??) Rare to have a Top-10 player who wasn't even ranking high enough to garner an evaluation the year before. Chinaglia is unquestionably the surprise player of 2056. He's overrated somewhat for his abilities. Athleticism is decent but nothing special and skill isn't on the same par as other elite players. An excellent serve and clay mastery are an unusual tandem, but he's going to improve for at least two more years so he'll be around a while as his betters decline. 10. Alexey Nikitin(94%, 8.50, +0.03) Still no evidence of activity, which is unfortunate. He could really have made some more headway and been an interesting force. Still could be to a lesser degree, if his manager returns, but after several months off that seems unlikely. 7 of the Top 8 are in significant decline now, and add Nikitin into the mix and the quality of top-flight tennis will take a nosedive here. For the first time in several years, fresh blood is badly needed. 11. Dick Blake(94%, 8.37, +0.01) Disappointing; one would hope for greater improvement from a still-young player. Still should be enough for Blake to move up a couple spots and get onto the first page. 12. Matthew Panter(90%, 8.33, +0.03) Briefly made it up to 10th this year, but he's now seen his best tennis. Hanging out just beyond the first page is about the best we can hope for from him. 13. Karl Kaspar(99%, 8.16, ??) Runner-up for surprise of the year. Only 22 and already knocking on that Top-10 door. Not nearly the player older brother Mateo is, but my pick for heir apparent. Karl is strong and has very well-developed technique for his age. I don't think he's good enough to push much higher just yet, but time is most definitely on Karl's side, and we already have proof that his manager knows what he's doing. 15. Gregory Mackenzie(93%, 8.36, -0.02) Like Blake, he just didn't get the job done training this year. On the court, he's ranked exactly where he was as well. Elite serve but hasn't improved his play at the back of the court as he should have. I said last season he'd soon become the top American. Should have, and probably still should, but not yet. 17. Cristian Castelgali(94%, 8.30, ??) For the first time in memory, Mexico has a top-quality player. Has the technique of a guy ready to challenge at the top level, and a good mental game, but athleticism holds him back somewhat. Still ready to challenge for the Top 10, though perhaps not quite there yet. 20. Hamal Sbai(96%, 8.44, ??) Sbai is the reason for Morocco's rise, and is that rare player who actually hasn't put enough effort into his serve. Elite baseline play, good mental game and above-average speed. Sbai is somewhat underrated where he is, and should be Top 10 before the year's out. Good endurance gives him plenty to work with in continuing to improve. Definitely ought to be Top 5 at a minimum eventually. Hamal is already the second-best player in Morrocan history; none have ever done better than 14th, a record that should fall soon. Rates as the world's 8th-best on paper right now. 24. Stuart Pargeter(96%, 8.17, +0.02) Surprised to see him slip a spot in the rankings last year. Pargeter should be improving more than this, but he's still got time to make a move higher. 29. Rob Lock(97%, 7.96, ??) Here come the new Americans. Lock is 22 years old, athletic and reasonably dedicated. Still has work to do. 30. Hugo Cordova(97%, 7.86, ??) Here's a strange profile. Also 22, Cordova already has the best serve I've ever seen(4.4!). He also is slow with a poor mental game, and really has nothing else much to recommend him yet, having put all of his eggs in that one basket. It does make him a frustrating opponent because of how hard it is to break him. I forsee many tiebreak-heavy matches in Hugo's future. 54. Stanley Edleman(100%, 7.79, +0.39) Edleman has been slightly surpassed in the rankings for the moment by juniormate Svajnovic(49th). Nearly cut last year's mark of 100th in half, winning a pair of Slam matches along with four Challenger titles and numerous finals. This year he should continue moving upwards, probably cracking the Top 32. 64. Sushant Chiba(99%, 7.69, +0.53) Edleman's been good; Chiba's improvement has been better, and he should at least pull even with the US prodigy this year. Both figure to be among the top Challenger-level players and, along with Svajnovic, Prachuab(in the low 80s), and a few others, pushing to break into the big-time. Chiba had six Challenger titles this year, none of them larger than tier-2. One final, two semis, four QFs, and one exit earlier as well. He'll be looking to be more consistent -- most of the early losses were as he was breaking in first half of the year -- and push into the bigger tournaments. He's got a little over half the necessary points to escape Challenger level, and exceeded expectations(Top 100 is all I was looking for). I figure he's close to breaking out but not quite at the end of the year, somewhere around 40th.