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Alan T · 05-13-2009, 02:03 PM

The interesting thing about day 1 votes are that you have one of three scenarios:

1) Villager vs Villager (most common)
2) Villager vs Wolf (happens sometimes, not necessarily uncommon, but not regular)
3) Wolf vs Wolf (happens rarely but has occured before).

The issue is that you don't learn which the case is until day 3,4 or 5 usually. In the case of #3, it can actually throw people for a loop when the first one is figured out to be a wolf as it then leaves the other one off the hook for a while (even though I am sure that is not an optimal wolf play to gain trust on day 1).

With case #1, you end up having one of them voted out, and all of the questions rise regarding the other candidate, and often times the next day is led to a witch hunt regarding that person, or sometimes people decide to go a different direction in which the day 1 vote ends up being utterly meaningless for a while.

What I find more interesting is what happens to lead people to the matchup situation on day 1. When you have 9 different people with votes, the chances are much greater that there has to be at least a wolf included in there somewhere. It is in the wolf's interest to try to shape the conversation to a run off between two non-wolves.. Who are the ones instrumental in that conversation? I am guessing that once upon a time that is what led to the thinking "The second vote must be a wolf" as at some point it might have likely been the case often.

Over time the wolves here have become more crafty then that and instead of placing the second vote on someone, they try to manipulate the vote via discussion instead. So that part of the day has passed already and I guess it is interesting to go back and see who might have been a part of that.

Plus with all of the ntn momentum, now that he is here in this thread, do those voters move to Martin, or do they go elsewhere? That is the problem with voting for someone who hasn't shown up after only 2-3 hours of some people's work day (considering many people like myself did not see the game start until this morning).

Just random thoughts (or maybe not so random)

05-13-2009, 02:03 PM	#473
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	The interesting thing about day 1 votes are that you have one of three scenarios: 1) Villager vs Villager (most common) 2) Villager vs Wolf (happens sometimes, not necessarily uncommon, but not regular) 3) Wolf vs Wolf (happens rarely but has occured before). The issue is that you don't learn which the case is until day 3,4 or 5 usually. In the case of #3, it can actually throw people for a loop when the first one is figured out to be a wolf as it then leaves the other one off the hook for a while (even though I am sure that is not an optimal wolf play to gain trust on day 1). With case #1, you end up having one of them voted out, and all of the questions rise regarding the other candidate, and often times the next day is led to a witch hunt regarding that person, or sometimes people decide to go a different direction in which the day 1 vote ends up being utterly meaningless for a while. What I find more interesting is what happens to lead people to the matchup situation on day 1. When you have 9 different people with votes, the chances are much greater that there has to be at least a wolf included in there somewhere. It is in the wolf's interest to try to shape the conversation to a run off between two non-wolves.. Who are the ones instrumental in that conversation? I am guessing that once upon a time that is what led to the thinking "The second vote must be a wolf" as at some point it might have likely been the case often. Over time the wolves here have become more crafty then that and instead of placing the second vote on someone, they try to manipulate the vote via discussion instead. So that part of the day has passed already and I guess it is interesting to go back and see who might have been a part of that. Plus with all of the ntn momentum, now that he is here in this thread, do those voters move to Martin, or do they go elsewhere? That is the problem with voting for someone who hasn't shown up after only 2-3 hours of some people's work day (considering many people like myself did not see the game start until this morning). Just random thoughts (or maybe not so random) __________________ Couch to ??k - From the couch to a Marathon in roughly 18 months.