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Thinking on the basis of my argument against Vaimes - that he was so incredibly "lucky" to have use his one-time ability on Chief - he and I had these targets from which to choose for our one-time ability last night:
omit Grover because he was toast
omit Coffee Warlord because he already copped to attempting a steal and getting nothing
britrock88
cheekimonk (for Vaimes)
Chief Rum
Glengoyne
MartinD
Narcizo
path12
Raven
timmae
Vaimes (for cheekimonk)
Zinto
Let's assume that no one has the Callandor and that there are 2 Ter'Angreal. That leaves 4 items (Ter'Angreal plus Horn - which could actually be lost, but I doubt it - and Warder's Cloak) among 10 targets for cheekimonk and 3 items among 10 targets for Vaimes (since he already had the female Ter'Angreal).
The odds of any of the 10 targets holding one of 4 items (for cheekimonk) was 40%. The odds of cheekimonk actually choosing a person with an item - with no other information - was [b]16%[b/b] (40% that anyone could hold an item and 40% that cheekimonk would pick one of them).
The odds of any of 10 targets holding one of 3 items (for Vaimes) was 30%. The odds of Vaimes actually choosing a person with an item - with no other information - was 9%.
Now, this means the odds of Vaimes choosing a person with an item who was also NK'd that night - with no information - were 0.9%. If he did know who was going to be NK'd and nothing else, his odds of nabbing an item go back up to 30% (because his choice of targets was reduced to 1 out of a possible 1, and that target had a 30% chance of having an item).
The odds of both cheekimonk and Vaimes choosing targets that had items remain at 16% for cheekimonk and 9% for Vaimes because they are independent outcomes.
In summary, the odds that what Vaimes did last night was random is 0.9% (that's not 9%...that's 0.9%). The odds that he did it with knowledge that Chief was getting NK'd are 30%. It is 33 times more likely that Vaimes knew Chief was getting NK'd
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