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Brian Swartz · 01-03-2024, 05:54 PM

Year 109 Top Ten Rankings

1. Ene Caballero (28, ESP, 83%, 8.81, -0.22) - 11,790

Both Caballero and Faille are on the borderline of looking a little better or a little worse in terms of how much they've actually declined, but it's clear that time is winning by a larger margin these days. Ene stays on top by virtue of winning Roland Garros and four Masters, but quarterfinal exits at Wimbledon and the US Open demonstrate that he's not dominant by any stretch.

2. Ben Faille (30, FRA, 79%, 8.78, -0.24) - 10,410

Faille has lost thousands of points this year as well. Despite that, he probably had the best year of anyone. Made the final of all four Slams, including winning the Australian and Wimbledon. A group play exit at the Tour Finals and only one Masters title while skipping two others entirely kept him from regaining the top spot. For a 30-year-old, that's pretty darned incredible, and disappointing at the same time.

3. Jan Schleicher (26, AUT, 90%, 8.80, -0.14) - 8,880

Schleicher also suffered from a certain level of management incompetence, skipping two Masters in the middle of the year. He ends strong by winning the WTF, and had two Masters titles and two other finals. Slam results though were a mix of quarterfinals and semifinals, leaving Jan still as the third wheel despite being fully the equal of Faille and Caballero at this point. Having just passed his peak, he likely won't decline as fast as the other two are.

4. Jason Abercrombie (26, AUS, 90%, 8.67, +0.03) - 6,000

Abercrombie essentially stayed at the same plateau he's been on for a few years now from a theoretical point of view, but he joins the Top 4 on the strength of a surprise run to win the US Open ... after losing in the third round of the middle two Slams. Four-set wins over Mankaba and Faille got him the trophy. It remains to be seen how long the inertia of his ranking will keep him here, but he has superior competition both above and below.

5. Iljia Starkov (25, RUS, 93%, 8.94, +0.02) - 5,895

Starkov nearly doubled his points total, and slashed his ranking in half from 10th last year, the second year in a row he's managed that. While he didn't really get any better, the top competition all regressing makes Iljia the world's best player, even though it's still very much within the margin of rounding error. This should be his year; he won't need much to push Abercrombie aside, and he should be able to take a 'first among equals' spot alongside Schleicher, Faille, and Caballero. I also expect another modest improvement in his game.

6. Kabo Mankaba (27, ZAF, 89%, 8.72, -0.03) - 5,755

Mankaba added nearly a thousand points, yet narrowly slipped a spot from 5th, showing how much more competitive it is getting. I'm not sure if Kabo will be able get past #5; like Schleicher, his best tennis is probably behind him now.

7. Alvin Fant (26, USA, 90%, 8.60, +0.02) - 4,645

Fant is yet another list of players to add to the peaked category. A modest addition of several hundred points moved Alvin up one spot in the rankings, but he's got a big target on his back. He's done better than I expected, but this is really as far as he's going to go.

8. Jorg Weltsch (25, DEU, 91%, 8.64, -0.13 ) - 4,205

Weltsch demonstrated this season just how far you can go by mastering the 500-level events. His fast-moving career would seem to be about to come to a crashing halt. He made the semis of the Tour Finals on the basis of tiebreakers; a 3-way tie with himself, Abercrombie, and Starkov all winning one of three matches in the round-robin. Other than that, a SF at Cincinatti and a few QF were all he had to show for himself, along with 3 500 titles and one final.

9. Girish Raychaudhari (23, SRI, 96%, 8.80, +0.14) - 3,725

10. Renke von dem Knesebeck (23, AUT, 96%, 8.78, +0.13) - 3,620

Raychaudhari and Knesebeck continue to basically be a matched set. They've reached the point where only Starkov can definitively be said to be better than they are; there was a lot of flip-flopping of positions although the Austrian is overall slightly better and had the upper hand more often than not. A few mistakes I made didn't help that. Still, Girish nearly had the #8 spot at the end of the year, 200 points exactly behind Weltsch before the ranking bug reared it's ugly head once more.

Analysis

Three more players dropped out of the Top 10 this year; Przalowik and Banqueria were long-term members, while Sachse had a shorter stay. We've reached a point of unrivaled chaos in my experience. Starkov has a small edge over five basically equally-matched players; Caballero, Faille, Schleicher, Raychaudhari, and Knesebeck. I expect things to have sorted things out a year from now, but at the moment in any given event any of those six could come out on top without it being all that surprising. For the next few months at least and probably longer, the smallest of edges will be significant.

The average rating slips from 8.79 to 8.75, and may well drop further. Only three players are clearly still improving, the rest falling and some of them fast. It's time for Starkov, Raychaudhari, and Knesebeck to gradually seize power, and for the next generation - who, exactly?? - to gradually kick the others out.

01-03-2024, 05:54 PM	#1505
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Year 109 Top Ten Rankings 1. Ene Caballero (28, ESP, 83%, 8.81, -0.22) - 11,790 Both Caballero and Faille are on the borderline of looking a little better or a little worse in terms of how much they've actually declined, but it's clear that time is winning by a larger margin these days. Ene stays on top by virtue of winning Roland Garros and four Masters, but quarterfinal exits at Wimbledon and the US Open demonstrate that he's not dominant by any stretch. 2. Ben Faille (30, FRA, 79%, 8.78, -0.24) - 10,410 Faille has lost thousands of points this year as well. Despite that, he probably had the best year of anyone. Made the final of all four Slams, including winning the Australian and Wimbledon. A group play exit at the Tour Finals and only one Masters title while skipping two others entirely kept him from regaining the top spot. For a 30-year-old, that's pretty darned incredible, and disappointing at the same time. 3. Jan Schleicher (26, AUT, 90%, 8.80, -0.14) - 8,880 Schleicher also suffered from a certain level of management incompetence, skipping two Masters in the middle of the year. He ends strong by winning the WTF, and had two Masters titles and two other finals. Slam results though were a mix of quarterfinals and semifinals, leaving Jan still as the third wheel despite being fully the equal of Faille and Caballero at this point. Having just passed his peak, he likely won't decline as fast as the other two are. 4. Jason Abercrombie (26, AUS, 90%, 8.67, +0.03) - 6,000 Abercrombie essentially stayed at the same plateau he's been on for a few years now from a theoretical point of view, but he joins the Top 4 on the strength of a surprise run to win the US Open ... after losing in the third round of the middle two Slams. Four-set wins over Mankaba and Faille got him the trophy. It remains to be seen how long the inertia of his ranking will keep him here, but he has superior competition both above and below. 5. Iljia Starkov (25, RUS, 93%, 8.94, +0.02) - 5,895 Starkov nearly doubled his points total, and slashed his ranking in half from 10th last year, the second year in a row he's managed that. While he didn't really get any better, the top competition all regressing makes Iljia the world's best player, even though it's still very much within the margin of rounding error. This should be his year; he won't need much to push Abercrombie aside, and he should be able to take a 'first among equals' spot alongside Schleicher, Faille, and Caballero. I also expect another modest improvement in his game. 6. Kabo Mankaba (27, ZAF, 89%, 8.72, -0.03) - 5,755 Mankaba added nearly a thousand points, yet narrowly slipped a spot from 5th, showing how much more competitive it is getting. I'm not sure if Kabo will be able get past #5; like Schleicher, his best tennis is probably behind him now. 7. Alvin Fant (26, USA, 90%, 8.60, +0.02) - 4,645 Fant is yet another list of players to add to the peaked category. A modest addition of several hundred points moved Alvin up one spot in the rankings, but he's got a big target on his back. He's done better than I expected, but this is really as far as he's going to go. 8. Jorg Weltsch (25, DEU, 91%, 8.64, -0.13 ) - 4,205 Weltsch demonstrated this season just how far you can go by mastering the 500-level events. His fast-moving career would seem to be about to come to a crashing halt. He made the semis of the Tour Finals on the basis of tiebreakers; a 3-way tie with himself, Abercrombie, and Starkov all winning one of three matches in the round-robin. Other than that, a SF at Cincinatti and a few QF were all he had to show for himself, along with 3 500 titles and one final. 9. Girish Raychaudhari (23, SRI, 96%, 8.80, +0.14) - 3,725 10. Renke von dem Knesebeck (23, AUT, 96%, 8.78, +0.13) - 3,620 Raychaudhari and Knesebeck continue to basically be a matched set. They've reached the point where only Starkov can definitively be said to be better than they are; there was a lot of flip-flopping of positions although the Austrian is overall slightly better and had the upper hand more often than not. A few mistakes I made didn't help that. Still, Girish nearly had the #8 spot at the end of the year, 200 points exactly behind Weltsch before the ranking bug reared it's ugly head once more. Analysis Three more players dropped out of the Top 10 this year; Przalowik and Banqueria were long-term members, while Sachse had a shorter stay. We've reached a point of unrivaled chaos in my experience. Starkov has a small edge over five basically equally-matched players; Caballero, Faille, Schleicher, Raychaudhari, and Knesebeck. I expect things to have sorted things out a year from now, but at the moment in any given event any of those six could come out on top without it being all that surprising. For the next few months at least and probably longer, the smallest of edges will be significant. The average rating slips from 8.79 to 8.75, and may well drop further. Only three players are clearly still improving, the rest falling and some of them fast. It's time for Starkov, Raychaudhari, and Knesebeck to gradually seize power, and for the next generation - who, exactly?? - to gradually kick the others out.