|
In the modern presidential primary era, I think it's noteworthy that we're on a run of 20 years of presidents who had never before run for the office before.
While some candidates have earned their party's nomination on a second bid, none of them have won. I think there is something to be said for the fact that running once and failing hurts your reputation. But I think the bigger factor is that the more voters know you, the higher your negatives are.
If past failure continues to a barometer for presidential success, Romney and Gingrich could theoretically get the nomination but would appear to have little chance to win. I'd include Palin in that group, since I think at this point she's been vetted like a presidential candidate, even if she only ran for VP. Given the choice of Romney, Gingrich, Palin or the field, I'd take the field.
The GOP field is just ... odd. I've met Tim Pawlenty and while he seems like a nice guy, he seemed more like a next door neighbor who owns his own insurance agency than president. I've seen Hermain Cain speak, and he's a little crazy.
Is there any name who really excites anyone? Maybe someone who seems like a lightweight will emerge from the field. Obama started building buzz in 2004, and there's just no one that seems to excite anyone right now.
|