Quote:
Originally Posted by MalcPow
-Don't draft QBs with a bench lower than 10
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Just did a check on a bunch of FOF7 draft classes using PlayerTracker. This is still pretty much gospel.
Bench press of 10 or higher (4656 game-generated FOF7 QBs examined):
5.67% made it to 50/50 or better (264 out of 4656)
3.09% made it to 60/60 or better (144 out of 4656)
1.74% made it to 70/70 or better (81 out of 4656)
But when the Bench is 9 or lower, but not zero (4672 game-generated FOF7 QBs examined):
.30% made it to 50/50 or better (14 out of 4672)
.06% made it to 60/60 or better (3 out of 4672)
0 made it to 70/70 or better (0 out of 4672)
Interesting also that the overall totals (4656 vs. 4672) are SO close. I wonder if that sort of things holds true across all positions: that it's set to generate exactly the same number of guys above and below the constraints.
Sure, some of the "Below 10" guys might become decent game managers rated under 50, but the numbers don't seem to justify bothering with drafting them. Checking an active draft, for example, the FOOL's current draft class has 59 QBs. 30 have a bench of 10 or better, and 27 (not counting combine skippers) are 9 or worse. I don't know that 30 QBs ever get taken in a draft. (I just checked the CCFL, and highest ever there in 36 seasons has been 23.) So it would seem that simply ignoring guys under 10 is the way to go.
You're roughly 20 times more likely to pick a 50/50 guy out of a hat, without looking at ANYTHING else, if you only pick from the "10 or better" hat.