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Old 02-22-2016, 05:40 PM   #264
Brian Swartz
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2006
Race to the World Tour Finals Standings
Pre-Paris Update

Once again we are down to Paris to finalize the field, and there is still some drama left at the top despite Mehul's recent stumbles ...

In

Antonin Iglar -- 10,960
Anil Mehul -- 10,090
Bjorn Benda -- 8,840
Cestmir Marcek -- 6,920
Girish Girsh -- 5,610
Pierce Gaskell -- 5,000

The year-end #1 is completely in Iglar's control now ... well, sort of. If Mehul wins Paris and sweeps the World Tour Finals, he would temporarily take at least a 30-point lead and become #1 ... until the World Team Cup Finals a couple weeks later at which point he would lose it. So for Mehul to finish out the year on top, he will need some help. Winning both events will require his best, but it is possible. Iglar is a bit fresher and still probably the best indoor player in the world, but Mehul was a bit run-down at the end of the last year and still won the WTF so he can do it. The odds are just really against him right now, the losses in Shanghai and the Swiss Indoors really hurt, and it is possible they along with the USO Final could come back to haunt him if he never gets over the hump and Iglar goes on another dominant streak next year, which is very possible. Time will tell, but taking the Paris/WTF double would keep him very much in the hunt at a minimum, just behind the Czech legend.

Further down the list, Girsh really should be at worst the #3 player in the world indoors and big results at Paris and the WTF are key for him in closing the gap on Cestmir Marcek, setting himself up for a big season next year. The Czech no. 2 will fall eventually but sooner is better than later. Gaskell's run to the Shanghai final has him hanging around too close for comfort as well ...

Of the half-dozen who are confirmed at this point, five were there last year. Girsh is the lone new face so far. Benda is making his 6th straight appearance, Iglar his 5th, and it's the fourth in a row for Mehul. It's the third for Marcek who has never made it past the round-robin stage, while Gaskell is back for his second attempt as a surprise semifinalist last year.


Probable

Perry Mockler -- 3,720

Mockler did not win a match in his first trip last year, but looks like a pretty safe bet to at least get back for another try.


Contenders

Thiago Herrera -- 3,300
----------------------------
David Alvarez -- 3,195
Radek Smitala -- 3,050

Here's where it gets interesting. Alvarez looked a safe bet to make his 4th appearance(three straight round-robin exits) a couple of months ago. It appears however that his manager, who also handles Perry Hogue, has decided to exit stage left instead of reloading with younger players. Both Hogue and Alvarez skipped both Shanghai and Paris, meaning that Alvarez won't even be trying to pick up the points he needs to get back into the field. Herrera is the beneficiary, seemingly positioned very well to make his first appearance. But he doesn't have it sewn up yet ... Smitala's late charge has him positioned well enough to keep some pressure on, though he'll have to at least make the semifinals on a surface he isn't particularly proficient at, which would seem unlikely.

Long Shots

Roger Federer -- 2,935
John Condon -- 2,850
Marcelo Herrera -- 2,780
Mugur Kinczllers -- 2,750

To have any chance at all, these guys need to make the final. They haven't been eliminated yet, but the odds of them getting through the top indoor players in the world are remote. You can see here how competitive it's been below the top half-dozen players(everyone after Gaskell) this year. One week left and there are still eight players active, vying in some fashion for the final two qualifying positions. Particularly here in the 'not-quite-there' listing, they are bunched together so closely as to be indistinguishable. Regardless of what happens in Paris, it will be fascinating to see which of these players steps forward, and which falls back, as next year arrives.

Last edited by Brian Swartz : 02-22-2016 at 05:40 PM.
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