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Old 03-02-2016, 05:40 AM   #281
Brian Swartz
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2006
Thanks! It was a lot more interesting year than I expected it to be.

2044 Preview

1. Anil Mehul(89%, 9.85, - .02). A barely-perceptible decline continues ... but it sure didn't seem like it this year as he really rose to the occasion.

2. Antonin Iglar(89%, 10.2, -0.05). Still clearly the best on paper, especially after another good off-season of training. But can he get back to the level of dominance he once enjoyed, or is his confidence permanently shaken?

3. Bjorn Benda(84%, 9.67, -0.14) Even at almost 30, he's far from a pushover.

4. Cestmir Marcek(84%, 9.43, -0.09) No way he can beat the odds for another year ... right? I'd expect him to drop to sixth or so this year, but who knows.

5. Girish Girsh(95%, 9.8, +0.05) Continuing his gradual rise, but it's tough to improve much now.

6. Pierce Gaskell(88%, 9.79, +0.06) The top American will still be a factor.

The tiers are interesting right now. For all the 'weak era' talk, Gaskell, Girsh, and Mehul are really a very credible trio of challengers after Iglar. A weak era is still coming, but this is actually better(thanks mostly to my duo, frankly) than things looked a couple years ago with Benda, Iglar, and basically nothing. And the German is still quite relevant. But the depth after them, particularly if Marcek falls off -- it's quite lacking.

7. Perry Mockler(88%, 9.26, -0.07)

8. Thiago Herrera(90%, 9.28, +0.01)

9. Radek Smitala(89%, 9.29, ??) -- Smitala was 2043's 'veteran I didn't see coming'. Good for him. He really fits right in with the packed tier of Mockler, Herrera, and actually many others, but it's his hardcourt expertise that sets him apart from them in many events.

11. Roger Federer(90%, 8.94, +0.12) -- The lack of speed and mental game was exposed a fair bit this year, but he still has a chance to get back into the Top 10 at some point.

12. Marcelo Herrera(91%, 8.91, ??) -- Great strength, but equally poor tactics and consistency from the baseline. As a result, he's not as good as Thiago and is a long-shot to break into the first page.

13. John Condon(88%, 8.84, ??) -- The best serve in the game has made Condon a very hit-or-miss player, as he sorely lacking in rally ability, even more so than M. Herrera. He briefly jumped up to 9th, then crashed out again.

14. Mugur Kinczllers(94%, 9.17, ??) -- He's spent way too much time on his doubles game, but Kinczllers remains second-best in Girsh's age bracket, is decent in atheleticism/mentality with better technical skills than most of those close to him. Really should be Top 10 this year.

15. Gustavo Caratti(96%, 9.24, ??) -- Only average mentally, but he won't be under the radar for long. A few months younger than Girsh, Caratti looks poised to overcome Kinczllers for the #2 spot. If both of them reach the Top 10(they should), Generation Flash may finally lose some of it's stigma. Caratti is an outstanding athlete, but neither has what it takes to be a true challenger.

The next generation, which I looked at a few days ago, will see players like Bereznity, Bourdet, and Adronikov push their way into the Top 20 this year. 20th-ranked Frenchman Davide Poilblan(96%, 9.17) looks ready to push higher as well. We should see the group of players from roughly 8th to 20th get significantly better over the next year or so -- competition will be intense and they will make up to a degree in numbers what they lack in individual greatness and standout stars. I expect the divide between the Top 5 and the next 15 or so players after them will remain large. All of this figures to make it tough for those following after them to move up when it is their time. It's worth noting that Sri Lanka actually has a third player, created by another manager, who could have something to say here as well as he made it into the Top 100, (presently 108th), Shreya Ujjaval(100%, 8.64). Mismanaged though he's been to a degree and in severe need of an improved serve(it's no better than Mooljee's who is two years younger), Ujjaval is already almost good enough to be relevant. All of this could make things a little difficult in a year or two for Sri Lanka's next real star:

232. Prakash Mooljee(99%, 8.22, +0.95). Mooljee has just reached physical maturity, which will slow his progress; the next couple of years will be the most important for him in terms of scheduling and training. Still, after a year of seasoning at the challenger level he'll begin to be ready to challenge the kinds of players listed above, and right now it looks like it could be a formidable wall, a definite school of hard knocks for him.

2193. Anil Manohar(57%, 5.92, -0.22). The 41-year-old veteran is readying to sail off into the sunset. It's time.

Last edited by Brian Swartz : 03-02-2016 at 05:42 AM.
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