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Old 03-12-2016, 02:37 AM   #287
Brian Swartz
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2006
February

Nothing actually happened during February, but in the first week of March, Prakash Mooljee was up for his next event. After hemming and hawing and going back and forth, I decided against a challenger event in a busy challenger week and went with a final futures tier-1. Mooljee has been up and down against the unpredictable, motley set of players that make up the 100-200 position in the rankings, and an early loss in a challenger would have left me regretting not taking the sure route, the 'bird in the hand'. Predictably, he rampaged through the draw for another title which gives him just enough that he should be ineligible for any more, though we'll see once another set of amateur points drop off this ranking score. Unfortunately in doubles he had another bad-luck, tough super-tiebreak loss in qualifying. He's been as bad in pairs as he has in singles, and something's got to break soon because he's just too good a player. I think it's just drawing a lot of bad partners.

Shreya Ujjaval continues to frustratingly play way too much. Since the Australian Open, he's had a couple of early losses but did manage a quarterfinal in Acapulco(QF, Clay). That has him up to a new high of 66th. I don't expect too much more of a rise, probably into the Top 50 this year but I don't think further than that this season. We'll see how it goes for him.

Mehul and Girsh had the full stretch of four weeks off. It's interesting that other top players don't follow this strategy, not even the brilliant oprice who handles Iglar and Benda. Girsh failed to defend his title in Memphis and nearly dropped a spot in the rankings for it, falling further behind Marcek. The Czech is somewhat overplayed in my opinion as are the two former #1s, while Gaskell is horribly so. I find this to be a risk and not one worth taking. With Indian Wells and Miami back to back, any player making the final will have three matches a week for four weeks straight. Letting my 'power pair' rest -- I'd have given Girsh another week even if I could -- does make them somewhat vulnerable to early losses in Indian Wells, but at the same time it virtually guarantees they will be fresh enough to excel through the end of Miami and none of the others can say that. Experience has demonstrated to me this is the best way. We are majoring in the majors, and so on.

Coming Up ...

Obviously Indian Wells is up next, and this is the first time that Antonin Iglar, a perfect 19-0 on the year so far, has a real chance to seize back the top spot in the rankings. I think he probably will do so ... at least temporarily. Last year he was a pretty stunning upset victim in the final against Benda, and if he wins it this year he'll be back at #1. However, since Mehul lost early(quarterfinals) in Miami, he can get it back two weeks later by making the finals at both events. This could really go either way.

Girsh goes in with a gap of 1,740 points to catch Marcek, and is just 100 points ahead of the worn-out Gaskell but that's of little consequence given that there is no way the American will be able to produce much over the next month given how overplayed he is. The Czech no. 2 had an early exit in IW last year(4th round) but then made the final in Miami; Girsh had a quarterfinal and a semifinal. I would expect the status quo to be roughly maintained but maybe he can pick up a bit of ground. It appears it will be a longer chase than I previously hoped ...
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