Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit
But my point is that CR's basic premise of "we know one wolf was at the meeting so let's look there" is deeply flawed.
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I would agree with that. Due to the outcome of the meeting, it seems likely the bulk of the wolves were not at the meeting, so by simple math our odds are better at hitting a wolf in the group that wasn't at the meeting, even in my case when I can eliminate another meeting member from the calculation (myself), that gives me 1/4 vs. 3/8 (I doubt there would've only been 3 total wolves out of 19 starting players with Hitler having a variety of powers and with one wolf unable to communicate with the others assuming the bomber is in the game). That's not to say we can't use other evidence to sway the odds one way or another, but if you really aren't sure about anything, your odds are better voting a non-meeting participant.
I'm still working through Chief's analysis and my own and I won't really be able to tackle it until later this morning.