[PilotMan]

1986 Playoff Preview


AL


Toronto Blue Jays v. California Angels


The Blue Jays are the heavies. They are making their 3^rd straight appearance in the ALCS having won it all in 1984. The Blue Jays won the East with a record of 98-64 and finished 8 games ahead of the Red Sox. They have the #2 offense in the AL and lead the league in HR's with 189 and were 2^nd in SB's with 178. They have speed and power. Their pitching isn't half bad either as they are 4^th in team ERA, with the top bullpen in the AL. They did allow a lot of HR's but their offense was better.


They had 3 guys with over 20 HR's. George Bell lead all with 33, then it's rookie 3B, Cory Snyder with 23 and last is Lloyd Moseby with 20. They had 4 guys with over 20 SB's. They are Ricky Henderson (54), Tony Fernandez (35), Lloyd Moseby (29) and Mich Webster (24). The team lost middle of the lineup hitter Jessie Barfield in April, then for the season in June. Barfield still hit 9 HR's in 32 games and he's getting closer to coming back. Word is that he could be back in a week or so, depending on how this series goes.


The Jays ace this year has been Jim Clancy. Clancy (18-12, 2.94) pitched a team high 263 innings with a team leading 1.11 WHIP. Number 2 in the rotation has been Danny Darwin (15-11, 4.53, 238). Tom Seaver, in an amazing rebound year where he won his 300^th career game, thew more innings (228.2) than he had since 1978. Seaver went 16-8 with a 4.05 ERA. In the bullpen it's been Dave Smith holding down the back end. The former Phillies closer was acquired during the Winter Meetings for 3 high level prospects and a player to be named later. This year he saved 35 out of 40 chances to lead the AL. He also had a 2.40 ERA, his career best since he was a rookie in 1980. Setting him up has been Tom Ubiera (4-5, 4 S, 3.53 ERA 51G) and Randy St Claire (9-7, 4S, 3.84 ERA, 64G).


The California Angels finished with the best record in all of baseball. Their record of 103-59 saw them as the only 100 game winners this season. They did it mostly with pitching, leading the AL in opponent average and hits allowed, while being 2^nd in team ERA. The bullpen is a weak spot though as they were the 10^th best in the AL. Defensively, the Angels were the best in the AL. On offense, the team was a pedestrian 9^th in team average, 11^th in hits, 2^nd in HR's and 7^th in runs scored. They're not built to dissimilar to the Dodgers.


This is only the 2^nd AL West crown for the Angels in the franchise history. They last made the playoffs in 1979 and last year finished 3^rd, albeit with 94 wins.


This year the team had 4 players with over 20 HR's. They are lead by Tim Wallach and his 30. Many said that when Wallach left the Expos last off season that he would miss the days with the juggernaut Expos, but he stood on his own this year with a .276/.327/.477 line, along with 92 RBI's. Along with him are Mike Young (24), Ken Phelps (23) and Dave Henderson (21). Young was another offseason signing from the Orioles. Phelps got hurt in mid August and is done for the year. He was only batting .195 before he got hurt. The absolute biggest weapon on the team has been totally unheralded Dick Schofield. The 23yr old shortstop is one of the best defensive short stops in the league, and before now his best years saw 13 HR's and .257 avg in '84. This year he has really come through. Batting .301 at the top of the order and stealing 28 bases to go with 15 HR's and 93 RBI's he is a real double threat and hard to pitch around. He might be one of the most underrated players in the game. There are a couple of ex Dodgers on this team too. Old guy Steve Garvey took over at first after Phelps was lost, but he's only hit .226 with 13 HR's. Tony Bernazard starts at 2^nd and hit 15 HR's and batted .267.


The Angels staff is deep, and was deeper. In fact, this team has been beset with a myriad of injuries, major injuries. Brett Saberhagen, an All Star, was lost for the year with a finger ligament injury. He had been 14-9 and won the ERA crown with a 2.35 ERA. He also lead the league in WHIP with a 1.00. Saberhagen isn't easily replaced. If that wasn't bad, they also lost long man, and spot starter Shane Rawley (3-0, 4.05) and former Orioles closer Tippy Martinez (0-0, 8.44 ERA). So who's left that they are still the best with those losses?


Well, Mike Witt put together a Cy Young type season and lead the league in wins with a 23-9 record. He was on pace to get close to 28 at one point. Witt posted a 2.82 ERA and struck out 211 in 261 IP. Behind Witt is veteran hurler Bert Blyleven. Blyleven (16-13, 3.99) had one of his worst season's of record. He lead the league by allowing 48 HR's, making Tanana look squared away. But he still can dominate a game. Behind him is journeyman Rich Dotson (15-12, 4.20) who still threw 222 innings. The bullpen has 2 guys who have been in charge there. One time closer Stu Cliburn is now the primary set up man, but before that, he had 31 saves (4 blown) in 60 games with a 3.13 ERA. The new closer is Dave Stewart. Stewart came back to SoCal last year in a trade with the Mets and played set up last year. Injuries forced him into a hybrid role where he closed during the year and made spot starts at the end of the season. His 7-4 record, and 18 saves aren't earth shattering, his 3.79 ERA isn't scaring anyone, but he is very reliable for the most part.


NL


Montreal Expos v. Los Angeles Dodgers


Stop me if you've heard this one before. You know these teams. This is the 6^th straight East title for the Expos with last season being the first title for the franchise. They aren't as much of a sure thing this season, but they did end up on top after that battle with the upstart Mets. The team was 2^nd or 3^rd in most offensive categories, but they were down in 8^th in HR's. The team was 2^nd in the NL in pitching with the bullpen in 6^th. In contrast, they were 1^st in the league in HR's allowed and walks.


The team is still an All Star fan fest. They will be without stalwart Andre Dawson (.295/.336/.523 and 25 HR's) for the entire NLCS. He's dealing with a shoulder injury suffered in late September and the team will be missing CF'er Robin Yount (.276/.343/.443 and 11 HR's) for at least the start of the series. Yount had a severe ankle sprain. Dawson was the only player with more than 20 HR's. The rest of the power in Montreal came from Gary Carter (17) and Andres Gallaraga (16). Tim Raines is probably the most dynamic weapon the team. He batted .342 and stole 72 bases to go with 93 RBI's. This team still features Lou Whitaker (.262/12/68) and Paul Molitor (.311/10/83) in the lineup. Mike Greenwell is filling in for Dawson in right.


The pitching staff was anchored by Rick Reuschel (18-8, 2.72), David Palmer (16-5, 2.51), Charlie Liebrandt (15-8, 3.02) and Bryn Smith (17-7, 3.21). There's no weak spot in that rotation. Each and every one of them can take over a game and they all had fantastic seasons. Probably the deepest rotation in the playoffs. Coming out of the bullpen is Dan Quisenberry (9-7, 3.11 and 28 saves), Jeff Reardon (3-11, 3.83, 10 S) and Larry Andersen (via trade with the Tigers, 3-6, 3.45 and 25 S). They also sport Nolan Ryan (13-9, 3.59) and John Candelaria (4-2, 5.34). The team is flush deep with talent.


Like I said, this team is stocked. You know it, we know it, they are a tough game every time.


LA finished the year 11^th in the NL in team avg, but 4^th in runs scored. They were 11^th in hits, and 2^nd in HR's. First in walks, and last in stolen bases. The team strategy there seems obvious. You've seen it in play all year long. LA also boasts the top pitching staff in the NL, and the top bullpen. They finished the year as the hottest team in baseball and spent the last few weeks just winning all over. It was quite a change from the earlier part of the season where we were nothing more than a .500 team.


Doug DeCinces was LA's top producer on offense and he is lost for the year. That should make a difference, but other players have been stepping up in his absence. Both Ray Knight and Pete Incaviglia have made a difference with their bats, with DeCinces being gone. The team will rely on slugger Franklin Stubbs to do some of the heavy lifting. Stubbs lead the team in homers with 33 and RBI's with 111. Aside from DeCinces, only Fred Lynn had 20 or more HR's. Part of that was due to the constant merry go round in the outfield. Steve Sax will be critical in the playoffs. His batting average over Sept/Oct was .385 and he lead the team in OBP for the season with a .353 OBP. He also provides the only speed on the bases. He had 43 steals this year. He has to get on in order for LA to score runs and keep innings going. If he doesn't, the next man up is Phillips and his .351 OPB. However, the #3 leader in avg was Mike Marshall and his .269. If he doesn't play, it's Sid Bream at .260. Those are not good numbers.


That means that the pitching staff will have all the pressure to keep the game close. The top pitcher this year has been Rick Rhoden (23-6, 2.49, 28/35 QS). His 4.71 RS/G was the best of his career. Behind him is El Toro, Fernando Valenzuela (17-10, 3.00, 25/36 QS) he got only 3.53 RS/G, the lowest since '82. If he get's Rhoden support that record is different. Behind Valenzuela is John Denny, the hottest pitcher on the team. Denny (17-8, 3.03, 24/34 QS and 3.97 RS/G), had both the worst month and best month for LA. They will hope the good Denny shows up. In the similar vein, Frank Tanana (14-7, 3.48, 17/30 QS and 3.87 RS/G) gave up 34 HR's and a bunch of first inning runs. He threw back to back 1 hitters and won NL Pitcher of the Month in May. It's a good rotation and a healthy rotation.


The bullpen is the best in the NL. John Franco (32S/6BS) held the back end down all year, but his 3.20 ERA wasn't tops on the team and his WHIP of 1.38 makes him vulnerable. Former closer Tom Niedenfeur only got 4 saves, but was a better pitcher than Franco. His WHIP was only 0.85. He did lose 9 games for us. The other heavily used back end pitcher was Ken Howell. Howell pitched in 54 games in his 2^nd full season and posted a 2.77 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Starter Kelly Downs (9-7, 3.28) will fill in the long relief role out of the pen.


This took entirely too long to write. I'm pretty sure that it's because I don't want to lose to the Expos and I'm feeling very pessimistic.