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Old 01-25-2011, 02:16 PM   #5
hoopsguy
General Manager
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
Dola (haven't used that term in awile)


Lets say that the average chance of lynching a wolf is 20%. It fluctuates from game-to-game and day-to-day within a game, but just to assign a number.

The chances of 20 straight bad lynches, using 20%, is 1.15%.
If you use 25% then it jumps to 3.17%.

Not quite as high as I thought it would be, but still a big time math outlier
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