Quote:
Originally Posted by larrymcg421
If he removes Manchin, the Republicans have a guaranteed pick up in 2018.
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Pretty much.
And the Democrats are already facing pretty steep midterm headwinds in the Senate given all the seats for which they're going to have to play defense. 23 Democratic incumbents are up for re-election (assuming no retirements), while just 8 Republicans face the same. Manchin is popular enough in WV to hold that seat, but if he isn't in the Senate, an otherwise "safe" seat is likely to flip. Republicans 53, everybody else 47.
Democrats are up for re-election in Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. All states Trump won.
In particular, Wisconsin re-elected a guy this year who ran on "don't pay attention to the last six years, I'm actually the outsider and Feingold is the incumbent #draintheswamp." That's how little he's accomplished in six years - he had no record to run on, so he ran against the record of a guy who hasn't been in the Senate for six years. If he can pull that off in a Presidential year, which is normally when Democratic voters show up, I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope for Baldwin's prospects.
So, I mean, even without Manchin's seat, Republicans can get to 60 by flipping the eight states I listed above. West Virginia is low-hanging fruit if Trump can convince Manchin to come aboard, and then they have margin for error with the other states.
If Jon really thinks President-elect Trump's agenda is what the country needs, wants to minimize the ability of Democrats to run "Operation: Obstruct EVERYTHING" from the Republicans' recent playbook, and thinks Manchin in the Senate holds only "some" redeeming value, he should be welcoming a Manchin appointment with open arms. Removing him from the chessboard sets Republicans up to go balls to the wall in 2019 and 2020.