[Commo_Soldier]

Day 2 interesting posts. One thing that really sticks out, sure enough J23 comes on, sorry guys, limited access makes just that post and his vote. Also mentioned is how people distrust this type of thing, will see if this continues or not.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Dola, maybe it is just me, but I would have thought being the only villager that came out and said they were roled, kind of surprised the BG didn't protect him.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I think it's a bit doubtful arguing that someone who voted NTN is a decent candidate for today. Obviously a wolf could have voted for NTN later on but does it looks as though dubb is pushing it to the extent that they are more likely to be wolves than people who didn't vote NTN. People are quick to point out the times when a wolf has voted a wolf forgetting the 19 times out of 20 when they voted villager. So in-terms of starting wolves I won't be looking at NTN voters for a while yet.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I agree, I really want to vote DZ today, but would be open to voting dubb as well. Will hold off for a few hours until more people come on and the conversation starts.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Well, I'm really off to bed now, had to stick around once I saw that my item didn't get passed.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I disagree about being least valuable role as it happens. One night kill (with the chance of not killing and thus clearing a good guy) is pretty useful for the village as I discovered, well, whenever it was. It can help clear up voting history and whatnot. I used to think that villager night kills were more damaging than helpful but my eyes have been opened. Any kill not controlled by the wolves is for the good.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So we have Saldana, Dubb and Autumn seemingly going the passive defensive route of questioning why people are creating a run on NTN. Unfortunately for neat solutions I don't really see any of them going that route if they are wolf-buddies with NTN. Admittedly there might only be two or three wolves so they would want to protect NTN and I think with a minimal ability to influence the vote more than questioning the NTN vote would be a way to do it but it just seems a bit too overt to be a likely option for an experienced wolf.

Originally Posted by dubb93

I'm almost starting to wonder if Narc, who voted Lathum of all people and kept his vote there even after Lathum claimed to be roled, doesn't have an agenda he is pushing here.

Originally Posted by saldana

again, i dont expect not to take some heat today, which is fine, but for my money, i will be looking at the people that came off of Bholloy after his reveal and DIDNT go to NTN

i put my vote on J23 and left it there (after my token dubb vote)...i didnt make any move to save anyone or hang anyone...the people that came off Bholloy and went to either mau or j23 are the people that i think need the closest examination today.

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Dammit, I did it again. Sorry, I'll delete my mech post.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

The problem is you didn't really say that, you just said that if someone voted NTN to tie it back up, to create confusion, would be a wolf move. The problem with that is we can't lynch NTN without tying it back up. I think this was your play to try and end the NTN voting run. The only thing that gives me pause is I don't see why, if you were concerned about a tie vote, you didn't put it on J23. I can only guess it is because that would have brought you even more heat.




I'm not following what Saldana was trying to do there either, not sure how showing how people are voting for you is any condemnation on your part. Frankly I can't see why our votes are not all poured onto, spread out of course, not a runaway, either Dubb, Saldana, or DZ today.

That said I don't think Saldana gets that defensive as a wolf, could happen, but to me, even with NTN having cunning, it is just too much heat to put on yourself for a day one kill. I'm really torn about voting Dubb or DZ as I'm not high on either as being a villager, the thing that gets me into voting DZ though is coming off of NTN after RA had shown up and could have cast a deciding vote. Then not only after coming off when question making a comment how the move was, in essence, to not make confusion who our lynch choice should be. I get the whole we can't all come off the tie at the end, but if you would have waited 10 minutes, and did it 15 minutes to deadline you would have seen the vote was no longer tied.

Vote DZ

Originally Posted by Autumn

Catching up after class. First of all I just want to say I'm liking all the good arguments out there. It feels like good old fashioned WW with a lot of people getting involved in the analysis.

I actually like what Saldana found there with Jackal. It is indeed interesting that Jackal jumped from Mauboy to J23 just when Mauboy was getting heat. And if I remember correctly that was just after I made a comment wondering why suddenly Mauboy was getting a lot of votes instead of J23, when J23 had been the guy in the lead behind Bhlloy. If Mau is a wolf, Jackal may have been using that as a convenient excuse to move off of him when it was getting.

Alternately my original thought, and the reason I stayed with J23, was that it seemed like J23, who was the natural person to move to after bhlloy - being in the lead, being present, and having admitted to having no role - was not getting any votes. That makes me want to look at J23 again. Obviously these two theories are incompatible. It would mean a J23 wolf paired with at least one of those Mauboy voters.

A possible wolf/wolf runoff was also a reason dzilla might have not voted J23 after unvoting. But I always try to throw out theories that suggest I now know all of the wolves.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think it's also possible that their night action has a % chance to convert, and if that fails, kills. We've seen that in other games. So a kill may just mean a failed conversion. But I think in this game it's also possible there's a possibility of both in one night.

Originally Posted by Danny

Vote Autumn

Originally Posted by Danny

This vote doesn't necessarily need to stick here, but I am laying it down anyway. He's not one of the players with a solid day 1 vote and I have a gut feeling about him. Its early and this could easily chance though.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Boy, deja vu all over again. Remember how well that last gut read went, Danny? lol

I can't fault a vote on me, anyone who makes a last minute switch to a wolf that doesn't really change the vote is going to get a look, for sure. I don't think I make that move if I'm a wolf, but still, it's legit.

I think we benefit more from seeing who didn't vote NTN but could of, though. We have quite a few of those to go by.

Originally Posted by Autumn

dola

I think prime wolf voting time is not anywhere near the deadline. When I'm a wolf I feel like the day is done an hour or two before deadline, as making any moves then is just too dangerous. So I like to look back at more "mid day" moves to save wolves.

Originally Posted by dzilla77

Its clear that your mind is made up and you're trying to sell your reasoning to the rest of the group. I am a villager. When that is revealed by the cleansing flame, you will begin to rise on the list of suspicious characters.

I will withhold my vote for now, as it will likely be for self preservation (if that's even possible).

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I'm in no way set on anyone, but my gut is worst on you now. I'll relook over everything when I get home two hours to deadline and adjust as needed, but to best gauge things I want to at least have a vote in during the day.

Originally Posted by Zinto

A big chance I may slip under the radar not on purpose though more of a case that school is slowly beginning to kick my butt.

Originally Posted by Zinto

Hopefully I can get a couple hours each day to delve into the game and post my thoughts though(other then dumb Mondays)

Originally Posted by Narcizo

My radar normally has people who I don't think have contributed much the day before on it for the first few days. :shurg:

I'm not getting Danny's beef with Autumn - seems that he's been talking sense to me so far. Given lack of presence and dodgy voting record I'm going to

Vote Mckerney

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am wondering why no one has talked about ntn voting for Mau early as being a good point or a bad point for Mau. If you believe as some have said that the Red Death wouldn't place an early vote on each other since they could just convert later in the game then Mau looks better but if you think that the Red Death would then Mau looks slightly worse.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I said last night that I think NTN's vote on Mauboy is inconclusive, for the reasons you state, that it's early enough to simply be a wolf on wolf vote.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

For what it's worth (nothing, I'll readily agree) if I had to vote for a current candidate I'd probably plump for mau. He said something about me not looming at him yesterday which just struck me as being the sort of thing a wolf-mau might say. But apart from that I've not got that much to pin on him. But despite my doubts about dubb's arguments I'm not really seeing him being a wolf. Ditto Saldana and I think it's quite a stretch seeing Dzilla doing what he did as a wolf. Oh and I'm not seeing the argument against Autumn. Well, ok I am but I really don't see it as be enough to warrant a vote at this stage.

Originally Posted by J23

First off, I'm pretty slammed at work, so I probably won't be able to contribute much today until closer to deadline, if much then. Anyway...

I understood your vote yesterday Autumn, and I actually think the move at the end to bury ntn is a good thing since we don't know what kind of voting manipulation might be in play. However, I'm really skeptical about your wolf/wolf theory for yesterday when a common thread throughout the discussions has been about he obvious conversion mechanics in place for this game. Given those mechanics, how many wolves do you think started this game? Out of the 24 people that started, you think we lucked into picking two wolves as the run-off candidates? On top of that you're saying that Dzilla would be a third wolf linked to the wolf/wolf run-off? That's just getting a bit ridiculous.

As for my moving my vote onto mau before ntn that someone brought up, I didn't want to pile on a guy that is often voted early due to not being around as much. It's why I originally put my vote on bhlloy rather than him as well (and I think I mentioned that last night as well).

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

well saldana and dubb did themselves no favors yesterday and somewhat continue that trend today.

I do kinda agree with the autumn thing too.

for now,

vote saldana

Originally Posted by Autumn

When do you not agree with the autumn thing?

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

What is the case on mckerney, other than casting a later vote yesterday?

Originally Posted by Autumn

My case is that he's one of the votes that came after bhlloy revealed, that wasn't on NTN. His was a key vote to push Mauboy up into contention instead. I haven't had time to look at what else he's been up to.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

No F-ing way Raiders was a wolf yesterday.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

well his excuse was "I forgot I was playing and I don't check the site much." I usually ignore excuses but that one is so weird I believe it.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Weird? In my experience that happens to about a half a dozen people per game. This game was actually unusual for everyone showing up!

Originally Posted by Danny

Unvote Autumn

Originally Posted by Danny

Autumn is too helpful of a villager for me to vote him now without much of a reason. I still have my eye on him though

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

if you convert me, autumn, I won't vote for you. how's that?

Originally Posted by Danny

If you don't vote Autumn then I will have to vote you.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Sorry, I'm just vanilla, I can't convert wolves back ;-)

Originally Posted by Autumn

Werewolf, the game where you start worrying when people agree with you.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

To get it a little less of a runaway since I don't mind voting for either.
dz
mckerney

Originally Posted by Autumn

Another place I like to keep a hairy eyeball is in the first few people who move off a person after reveal. I know as a wolf you don't want to look like you were reluctant to move off a roled villager, so I think wolves tend to be among the first to jump ship. in this case, Saldana, Jackal and Commo were the first off, just for posterity's sake.

Originally Posted by saldana

that is a horrible assumption...the only thing that it means is that I was in the thread when he made the reveal and was able to make the change

Originally Posted by Danny

I agree

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I too agree bad reasoning Autumn

Originally Posted by Autumn

It's not an assumption, it's just a possible place to look for wolves. Obviously timing, when people are in thread, whether their vote is on that person, all play into it.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think you guys are misunderstanding me. I'm not saying those people are wolves, or that they have to be wolves. I'm saying, just like we look at say second voters early in a day, or last minute switches, looking at the first movers after a reveal can be illuminating. That's all. I like to keep track of who it is, as it can be one more piece in the pile of circumstantial evidence.

Originally Posted by Danny

I am strongly considering a switch back to Autumn

Originally Posted by Danny

I still completely disagree. I think it simply shows who was reading the thread first. My vote wasn't on Dzilla, but if it was I would have switched off ASAP after his reveal if it was.

Originally Posted by Autumn

lol, this isn't old enough news for you? Every game I make a bunch of thoughts out loud about what might or might not be wolf behavior, then people start jumping on me for thinking out loud. I could write a script to play WW for me.

Originally Posted by dubb93

Hey, I think I was in this script last game.

Originally Posted by Autumn

In a world with only villagers, it would show that absolutely. In a world with wolves, it is also slightly skewed by the needs of the wolves to look like good villagers. A good villager is one who makes sure roled villagers don't get killed, ASAP. So among good villagers, villagers who are in thread at the time, early moves will usually also include wolves who are in thread at the time. A wolf is never going to hang around in thread and not move off a reveal, is basically my point.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I've considered in the past doing a "FOFC Werewolf" Werewolf game, where the roles are all people who play here. Clearly my ability would be to spout nonsense and distract the village.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I actually side with Autumn on his "wolves move off faster" because they are playing with complete info in terms of wolf/villager and thus are more rapid to "believe" a reveal. Villagers, who don't know anything basically, are more likely to question in thread or digest the reveal internally before moving off the player.

Certainly not 100% true, but I think there is something to what Autumn suggested.

And, if I was a cruel man, I would now move my vote to Autumn just to jerk his chain a little bit.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

unvote autumn

That vote was a joke post anyway but I'm rethinking. Maybe everyone should reveal and then we can vote.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Damn, we're turning up roles left and right.

And just so people can amuse themselves by beating me with my own words...

unvote mckerney
vote the jackal

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Unvote McKerney
Vote Jackal

Might switch back, but I have to relook some things to see if I really believe the reveal. As for Jackal, just a gut and don't want a runaway.

Originally Posted by dzilla77

I'm really waffling right now too. I am suprised J23 didn't get any run today either.

Re-reading, the thread now that I am not on the block, i'm not getting any real good feel for anybody on the block right now.

I am probably going to move, so someone convince me where to move.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

why not J23? Because mathematically the odds are very much against it-and I can't see the servants leaving both of them in a vulnerable position if a double lynch took place-which almost did. J23 would have revealed as something other than villager to get votes off him.

Originally Posted by Autumn

J23 is on my list but hasn't gotten any votes. I mentioned him a few times, but the idea that we had two wolves on the block yesterday is admittedly a hard one for people to swallow.

I don't really have anything to say on those other two at all. There's a lot of players here! Most likely the wolves are just hiding in those that aren't getting attention though, you're right.

Originally Posted by J23

I'm here, haven't voted, and just caught up with the thread. Don't know why I haven't had more scrutiny today, but it's not like there was a good reason for voting me yesterday either.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

saldana 6 - eaglefan (662) SnDvls (789) mauboy (851) Lathum (860) crimsonfox (861) mckerney (874)
mckerney 2 - narcizo (645) mrbug (758)
lathum 4 - dubb (660) jackal (768) raiders (794) thomkal (905)
jackal 3 - autumn (843) commo (908) saldana (921)
autumn 1 - grammaticus (779)
sndvls 2 - hoops (928) danny (938)

Originally Posted by J23

I think the vote for sndvls is for being utr, but I'm mostly guessing.

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am extremely behind. I passed out and just got back on. Without knowing anything that has happened so far I will vote for...

Vote The Jackal

Originally Posted by Autumn

This game is crazy.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

So are people really that convinced Saldana would come out and be so adamant that we find someone other than NTN as a wolf. I just can't see that happening so early as it is such a dangerous move. Do people have other reasons, or is that the big thing?

Originally Posted by Autumn

We've had two reveals, Chief, Dzilla and Mckerney.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

gramma you want to change off autumn yet?

I still say we should dogpile onto bug.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Why dogpile on bug?

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Yes, why

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

he's been on my utr list since the beginning with his joke vote on me with the excuse of "revenge from two games ago". THen never switched off that vote making it throwaway. Today he is again utr. He came in earlier, through out a cryptic comment AFTER mckerney's reveal yet did not move off.

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

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