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Old 12-10-2014, 12:00 PM   #14
Ben E Lou
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
FOF7 Constraints Added

OK. I've updated the first post to add the bottom-tier constraints that I've observed in FOF7. A few of these are clearly different from FOF2K7, but most are identical. A few key things to understand about these numbers.


1. These don't mean "any player better than all of these will be useful." For example, the WR key constraints are dash<=4.51, agility<=7.20, and posdrl>=42. However, there will be WRs at 4.45/7.00/50 who are scrubs.

2. However, these DO mean "any player worse than any one of these will virtually never be a 50/50 player." I posted an example of this for QBs in MalcPow's thread this morning.

Quote:
Bench press of 10 or higher (4656 game-generated FOF7 QBs examined):

5.67% made it to 50/50 or better (264 out of 4656)
3.09% made it to 60/60 or better (144 out of 4656)
1.74% made it to 70/70 or better (81 out of 4656)

But when the Bench is 9 or lower, but not zero (4672 game-generated FOF7 QBs examined):

.30% made it to 50/50 or better (14 out of 4672)
.06% made it to 60/60 or better (3 out of 4672)
0 made it to 70/70 or better (0 out of 4672)

Basically, so few guys make it to 50/50 or 60/60 that don't hit even one of these constraints that it may just be scouting error or VSOL that gets them above those numbers.

3. In nearly all cases, the constraint is also the most common combine value, and often by a very wide margin. For example, the QB agility constraint value is 7.80. In my current data, there are 1,642 QBs with an agility score of 7.80. The next-highest value is the lowest possible: 8.40. That only occurs 202 times. Below that, there are a bunch of values that show up 140-170ish times. So despite there being 148 possible values (from 6.93 to 8.40), more than one out of six non-zero results are 7.80. This is one of the more extreme cases, but pretty much all of the constraints work like this.

4. Because these constraints exist and occur with such frequency, some of our existing mathematical ways of examining combine data aren't worth very much. Stated simply, in a world where an agility score of 7.81 for QB is just about a kiss of death, 7.80 is workable, but the average is 7.87, there are "above average" QBs with agility scores in the 7.81 to 7.86 range that I would never, ever want to draft.
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Last edited by Ben E Lou : 12-21-2014 at 02:21 PM.
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