I guess it's possible we are living in a simulation. But it's just as easy to believe we are at #1 or #2 or the #3.a "programmers" or #3.b "God".
If I had to accept either 3.a or 3.b, I'll take the 3.b God angle. It's more comforting to think of God vs some nerdy, fat-ass programmer maintaining this simulation while dripping pieces of philly cheesesteak sandwich (or sushi) over his keyboard.
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"The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running simulations of their evolutionary history, or variations thereof, is very close to zero"
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There's a good chance I rather play future (Stellaris, X-Com, Space Rangers, Fallout) vs history (Civ 6, Sims). So I wouldn't call it zero but I'd say good chance I would NOT be interest in running simulations of my evolutionary history.
So why are people so convinced we are in a 3.a simulation vs 1, 2 or 3.b?