Hmmm, interesting article for those planning on 4% rule at retirement.
Don't know if it's been peered reviewed, first time I've read about it (kinda makes sense someone would research this for non-US), results are a little surprising, so take it FWIW.
Regardless, wife and I talked, we are staying with 4% rule in the first several years.
Opinion: Think you can rely on the 4% rule in retirement? Think again. - MarketWatch
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The so-called ‘4% rule’ is a mainstay of retirement thinking. It says that we are almost guaranteed to be OK in retirement if we keep our money in stocks and bonds, withdraw 4% of our portfolio (or less) in the first year of retirement, and thereafter just raise the withdrawals in line with inflation.
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The strategy failed less than 5% of the time in the USA, meaning that 19 times out of 20 people who pursued this strategy were able to make their money last at least 30 years without having to cut back.
The failure rate of the same strategy in Italy? Er…67%.
In France and Germany it was more than 50%. In Japan, about 36%.
Even in Great Britain and Switzerland the 4% rule would have failed more than 20% of the time. And using data across the world, Estrada calculates the overall failure rate for the 4% rule would have been 22%. In other words, one time in five retirees would find themselves forced to scale back their standard of living to get their money to last.
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