Quote:
Originally Posted by henry296
I'm not sure it will change much. Much like the team in college always picking defense when they win the toss, I think that collective wisdom will be to have the winning team go on offense. You get the extra possession and even starting on the 10 yard line, I think team's will have confidence.
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I disagree. If Team A says "Own 1", I think there is almost zero chance that Team B doesn't say "take the ball". When you are that deep in your own end zone,
expected point models are into the negative. Even a 1st-and-10 at your own 10 is still in the negative when it comes to expected points. That's why people are projecting around the 13-yard-line.
Having said that, even if every team says "own 13-yard-line" every time, statistically that creates a fairer approach when compared to the current or previous coin toss system.
I think you are right that teams won't stray too far from that point. But if you are the Chiefs for example, I think you start pushing that saying "own 7" or even deeper.