Quote:
Originally Posted by J23
If there is a bad lynch on day 1, that would leave it 6-2 as you mentioned. If the seer is not in danger of being lynched, that's only a 20% (or 25% chance if the second lynch goes badly)of being killed the next night. Is the risk worth waiting an extra night for scanning an additional person?
You're potentially risking two reveals since it isn't easy to hint at who is cleared and who is a wolf without giving away your role.
Also, did the cunning wolf make it in? That would make the scan really only reliable if it hits the other wolf, and thus perhaps a bit less of a vital role in the game.
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Your numbers are off. It's 6-2 right now, a bad day 1 leaves it as 4-2, at that point we are in end game anyway and need all the info we can get. Plus the % is 25% because the wolves are not going to kill themselves and there are four villagers left. I really can't see any scenario where it would be a bad idea for the seer to reveal unless we get a wolf today which changes things quite a bit.