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RPI-Fan · 06-21-2005, 01:23 PM

If we take a .330 hitter against a poor pitcher, making them a .450 hitter, the odds of a hit in one game are roughly (1 - (1 - .450)^4), or (1 - 0.0915), or 0.9085.

The odds of a 10 game streak (with this math) are then P^10, or .383.

20 game: .145
30 game: .056
40 game: .022
50 game: .0082
57 game: .0042

So that's a 0.4% chance of starting with a SPECIFIC game, getting 57 in a row. Since, however, you have (162 - 57) 105 chances to start the streak, the odds are (1 - (1 - P)^105), or 35.7%.

So clearly, even a good hitter going up against a poor pitcher does not effect the average very much, because 35.7% of people certainly don't get the 57-game streak.

Edit: I'm sure I goofed up the math somewhere, as my odds are way too high. Someone please correct me.

06-21-2005, 01:23 PM	#8
RPI-Fan Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Troy, NY	If we take a .330 hitter against a poor pitcher, making them a .450 hitter, the odds of a hit in one game are roughly (1 - (1 - .450)^4), or (1 - 0.0915), or 0.9085. The odds of a 10 game streak (with this math) are then P^10, or .383. 20 game: .145 30 game: .056 40 game: .022 50 game: .0082 57 game: .0042 So that's a 0.4% chance of starting with a SPECIFIC game, getting 57 in a row. Since, however, you have (162 - 57) 105 chances to start the streak, the odds are (1 - (1 - P)^105), or 35.7%. So clearly, even a good hitter going up against a poor pitcher does not effect the average very much, because 35.7% of people certainly don't get the 57-game streak. Edit: I'm sure I goofed up the math somewhere, as my odds are way too high. Someone please correct me. __________________ Quis custodiets ipsos custodes? Last edited by RPI-Fan : 06-21-2005 at 01:24 PM.