[Brian Swartz]

2041 Preview

This past year, there was quite a clear line of separation between the Top 12 players and everyone else. From 12 to 13 and beyond, a significant dropoff occurred. Here I'll take a look at how things look for the Dazzling Dozen(or whatever) going forward:

1. Antonin Iglar(95%, 10.14) -- +0.11

Nobody is close. Iglar posted a 36-5 record against the Top 12, which as we will see is far better than anyone else did. It goes even deeper than that, as he was 87-6 overall. I took a look back through history, and only Eric Gorritepe managed to lose as few as six matches in an entire year throughout the now-50 years of the tour. He's a category unto himself, having twice lost only two times, three another year, four another year, and also five on one occasion. Looking at the other greats though, Nicholas Sullivan lost at least seven each season, Oliver Haresign eight, and while the environment was a bit different with players playing a lot more events often, Martin Prieto lost at least eight though one year he had an astonishing 160 wins.

When you put all of that together, it can accurately be said that only Gorritepe ever had a better year than what Iglar just did in the 2040 campaign. It really helps put things in perspective, and only one player was responsible for more than one of his defeats. I'm proud to say it was Anil Mehul, who was also the only player to defeat him on his favored hardcourt surface(Indian Wells quarterfinals, in addition to the French Open 4th round later in the year). Iglar is still getting better, while his top rivals are not. He rules the tennis world with an unshakable iron fist, it's just that simple.

2. Bjorn Benda(91%, 9.89) -- -0.04

I'm not yet sold that Benda is on the decline, but he's definitely just about peaked at best. He was the only other player to post a record much above .500 against the top tier, with a sparkling 28-13 mark. Even at that, he lost well over twice as often as Iglar dead against the best. I expect him to continue to fall away into a more distant second place, but remain well ahead of the rest.

3. David Almagro(84%, 9.70) -- -0.19

Almagro looks likely to begin to fade this year as Prieto did last year. He was better than 8th last season, isn't as good as 3rd this season, and will probably end the year somewhere in between those two. Time is unforgiving. Almagro managed a solid 19-15 record against the best this year.

4. Perry Hogue(88%, 9.72) -- +0.06

I figured Hogue was done last year, and he actually improved somewhat! One thing that I'm learning from this is that, in general, I think players are peaking not at 26 but something closer to age 28. Perry won't be able to fight forever the simple fact that he is a quick developing, fast-aging player, and I'll be surprised if he improves again at this point, but his demise will certainly take longer than I expected. His extreme focus on hardcourt will make him a factor on that surface for at least another year or two I imagine. Hogue split his top-level matchups, 17 up and 17 down.

5. Mick Elder(85%, 9.75) -- -0.12

Especially towards the end of the year, the first signs that even his brilliant mental game can't keep Elder at the top of the sport were seen. He was just 14-18 againt the Top 12, although Mehul still had lots of problems with him during their matchups(tour finals excepted). He's still good enough to hang around the Top 5 I think, but continued slight erosion is expected and by next year he may no longer be a major factor.

6. David Alvarez(89%, 9.67) -- +0.01

It appears that Alvarez is pretty much at his peak right now. I'd expect more of what we saw this year; great results on clay, but he's not a factor anywhere else. A solid overall record against the Dazzling Dozen of 16-15 was actually enabled by the fact that he lost eight times against lower-ranked players on other surfaces. This was rare among the elite group; Iglar was beaten only once by the lower reaches and Mehul was 51-0 against them(hard to improve on that!).

7. Anil Mehul(95%, 9.76) -- +0.13

I'm pleased to say that Mehul grades out as the most improved player among the elite(narrowly over Iglar, who nearly overcame lower endurance with max training and equally good strategy). I'm not sure how much more improvement is in store, I think he's approaching the point where it will be difficult to get much better. Unlike last year though, he goes into the year feeling himself at least an equal overall to most of the rest of the best. He'll be looking to improve on a 12-18 record to something around break-even or better.

8. Evgeni Topolski(90%, 9.73) -- -0.09

The Russian underacheiver, generally poorly managed and not all that dedicated to begin with, looks like he's done about all he's going to do. After two tour finals in three years, he may well not be back. An 11-18 mark showed he was competitive this season, and he'll probably do about that again.

9. Viktor Goncharenko(89%, 9.52) -- -0.04

Goncharenko rode the coattails of his Wimbledon win for a while, but once those points disappeared he slid gradually down the rankings. His 5-17 record against the Dazzling Dozen was the worst in the group, and he lost five matches outside of it as well. I don't see him staying in the Top 10 for another year.

10. Cestmir Marcek(91%, 9.58) -- ??

Marcek was enough of a surprise that I didn't even rate him last year. I wasn't yet sold that he was going to bloom into a top player at this point of his career. Obviously I was wrong. My guess is he gets a bit better this year, and that this might well be a peak season for him. At 10-18 against the Top 12, he was just good enough to be a pain.

11. David Prieto(83%, 9.49) -- -0.15

A charmed year in 2039 had Prieto at #3, belying the fact that he was already well into his decline phase. This season he notched a 5-16 mark against the best, including 0-13 against the top half-dozen or so. A couple of early wins against him by Mehul didn't look quite so shiny in retrospect. Briefly #1 for 19 weeks, Prieto's time has come and gone. I doubt he'll appear in this rundown next season.

12. Julian Hammerstein(95%, 9.88) -- +0.08

Hammerstein is an enigma. His management is decent, although not optimal. Still, he should have been better the last year, year and a half than he has been. By all rights he ought to be competing with Benda for the #2 spot this year, but it was just a strange season for him. 10-14 against the top players isn't great but far from an embarassment. The biggest thing for him was that he wasn't able to produce a single notable upset, and he did drop a few, though not many, against players he should beat. A strong rise up the rankings should happen this year, but I'm less certain that it will.

Synopsis

I think Prieto and Goncharenko will cease to be factors, and Marcek hangs around the bottom of this group. Benda & Iglar own the top, but between them is a group of seven players that should be super-competitive. Anil Mehul could wind up anywhere in this group. I can see him rising to third or fourth, or falling a bit and struggling to even make the tour finals again. At a certain point it is just up to the player, and which players seize their opportunities best is really going to be the determining factor I think.

The Pack

There are only really two possibilities that I see out there for players that could join this group and replace what I expect to be the loss of Prieto and possibly Goncharenko. American Pierce Gaskell(14th, 95%, 9.59) is about equal to Marcek in ability but not managed as well -- he was overplayed fairly criminally last year. Still, he's got the potential to do it. The other possibility, again railroaded by mismanagement of various kinds, is Spaniard Marcel Bahana(97%, 9.75). Bahana really should be a Top 10 player by the end of the year, and really is a tragic waste right now. He's still improving, but needs to see results on the court and stop playing so much. I'm not sure how likely that is.

Here's how the rest of my players compare:

40. Girish Girsh(99%, 9.24) -- +0.45

Still at his physical peak though nearing the end of it, Girsh is improving rapidly and could well be in the top players conversation or at least on the edge of it by this time next year. I expect he'll end the year somewhere in the 20-30 range.

826. Anil Manohar(64%, 6.50)

66J. Prakash Mooljee(76%, 5.10) -- +1.10

Mooljee may be ready for amateurs by the end of the year or beginning of next, but for now is just more practice, practice, practice and mid-level junior events.