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Brian Swartz · 11-19-2015, 03:39 AM

2042 Preview

It's been a bigger shakeup this year than expected, with Elder, Topolski, and Almagro(still in progress) plummeting out of the top contenders. This has cleared the way, a bit prematurely, for the next wave. Alastra's generation has been completely swept aside, Benda's is on the way down now, Iglar and his followers are entering their prime while Bahana headlines the next group about to make it's presence felt.

1. Antonin Iglar(94%, 10.15, +0.01)

It would appear that Iglar is close to his peak, although I think he can still get better. He was fairly stagnant this year and had some unexpected setbacks, but there's no question he's the dominant player in the world and can win almost as much as he wants to. I expect at least three more years at the top for the Czech legend. He's not going away, it's just a matter of how impressive his footprint in the record books will be at this point.

2. Bjorn Benda(89%, 9.90, +0.01)

Benda put in some good training work late in the year, but saw a significant decline off clay as has been mentioned. He's on a slow and slowly increasing decline right now, but will still be very much a part of things for at least a couple of years.

3. Anil Mehul(93%, 9.89, +0.13)

Mehul definitely closed the gap this season, and is basically an equal now with anyone not named Iglar. It's becoming harder and harder to improve, and I think he's close to his peak now though maybe not quite there yet. The next two years will probably be his best. He has continued to improve more than anyone else at the top, and it really started showing dividends the second half of this year. His goals for this period of his best play:

1st. Catch Benda for world no. 2. This would seem to be only a matter of time. Late this coming year or early the following year seems to be the most likely timeframe.

2nd. Win the World Tour Finals and a Grand Slam. The WTF he has a good shot at, almost made it this year. Unfortunately there are no indoor Slams; his best chance will likely come at Wimbledon, with clay a weakness and Iglar focusing on the hardcourts those are unlikely as well. I think he's got a solid chance to take one over the next couple of years, but it's far from a sure thing.

3rd. Play Iglar as often as possible. Off clay, Mehul really has no other rivals that are his equal right now. Catching Iglar for the #1 spot will almost certainly be impossible, but his goal will be to beat everyone else and give himself as many chances as he can for upsets, esp. in the big events.

4. David Alvarez(86%, 9.63, -0.04). Alvarez diversified his game well this year, took advantage of fading rivals and is holding off the march of time admirably. He is on the downslope though, no question about it at 29.

5. Perry Hogue(85%, 9.58, -0.14). Now in a steep decline, which I expect will continue this year. He'll probably just be another guy floating around the bottom of the Top 10 by year's end.

6. Viktor Goncharenko(86%, 9.48, -0.04). His second renaissance this last year has more to do with the collapse of others, but the top Russian's game is holding together better than many. Still, the next generation should be booting him soon.

7. David Almagro(82%, 9.56, -0.14) Almagro has done nothing for the past few months, he's over 31, and he's still got the game to hang around in this relatively weak era if his manager was doing their job. It's a tragedy really for him to go out this way.

8. Cestmir Marcek(89%, 9.54, -0.04) Marcek appears to be just a hair over the hill now. He started to slip a few months ago. It's possible he can regain his footing, but more than likely he's done about all that he's going to do.

9. Pierce Gaskell(93%, 9.67, +0.08) Gaskell is the clear 4th best in Iglar's age bracket(after the champion, Mehul, and Hammerstein) and I figure him to be around 5th by year's end. He has outstanding speed and enough mental toughness to make up for a lack of baseline technique and keep moving up, but probably not enough to ever really be a serious threat.

10. Julian Hammerstein(93%, 9.96, +0.08) Hammerstein is the second-best player in the world from where I sit, but he continues to languish due to substandard management and an apparently lack of motivation. His focus wanders from singles to doubles and back again, he pulls out of the WTC then re-enters again to start this year -- you never know whether he's coming or going. Too much doubles and a lack of preparation kept him from being a major threat last year. The door's still open, though not as wide as once it was. Does he want it? With proper preparation, he could still be Iglar's most potent challenger. It's doubtful that will ever come to pass though.

Other Notables

11. Marcel Bahana(95%, 9.88, +0.13) The next Spanish hope rocketed up from the mid-30s to the edge of the Top 10 last year. He's the heir apparent to Benda on clay; the question is when, not if. He's still being overplayed, but not as badly as he was a year or two ago. As impressive as Girsh's rise in the rankings was this year, Bahana's was even better.

19. Girish Girsh(98%, 9.54, +0.31)

Girsh is about to begin the Bahana Chase in earnest, a term that is funnier if you mistake the middle consonant of the Spaniard's name. Ok, it is to me at least. He's younger and better than any of the players between them except Topolski, who doesn't count since he's in unrestrained free-fall. Only Groeneveldt is even close.

However, this is not really what matters; what matters is getting results against the Top 8 players that he will be consistently facing in the big tournaments. After all, you don't get any bonus points for losing closer matches than your less-skilled contemporaries; you've got to win. Against players he's likely to face in those situations, i.e. the round of 16 trying to advance to the quarterfinals, Girsh didn't do well last year. That's really putting it kindly, as he was winless in a dozen opportunities after escaping Challengers a few months into the year.

2042 should be different for him. That assumes facts not in evidence, but I rate him as being right there with Marcek, a bit ahead of Goncharenko and a bit behind Hogue as 9th or 10th best in the world. That's not bad for a guy who is still some months away from his 23rd birthday, but he needs to start pulling the odd upset against the more vulnerable members of the Top 10 soon. He can only rise incrementally until that begins to happen. The older, less durable, eventually vulnerable Spanish phenom will remain out of his reach for at least another year, but time is on Girsh's side.

2351. Anil Manohar(62%, 6.26, -0.24) It's an ugly thing, getting old ...

11(J). Prakash Mooljee(83%, 6.22, +1.12) The flip side of that coin. Mooljee is still a junior and basically an equal to Manohar now.

11-19-2015, 03:39 AM	#193
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2042 Preview It's been a bigger shakeup this year than expected, with Elder, Topolski, and Almagro(still in progress) plummeting out of the top contenders. This has cleared the way, a bit prematurely, for the next wave. Alastra's generation has been completely swept aside, Benda's is on the way down now, Iglar and his followers are entering their prime while Bahana headlines the next group about to make it's presence felt. 1. Antonin Iglar(94%, 10.15, +0.01) It would appear that Iglar is close to his peak, although I think he can still get better. He was fairly stagnant this year and had some unexpected setbacks, but there's no question he's the dominant player in the world and can win almost as much as he wants to. I expect at least three more years at the top for the Czech legend. He's not going away, it's just a matter of how impressive his footprint in the record books will be at this point. 2. Bjorn Benda(89%, 9.90, +0.01) Benda put in some good training work late in the year, but saw a significant decline off clay as has been mentioned. He's on a slow and slowly increasing decline right now, but will still be very much a part of things for at least a couple of years. 3. Anil Mehul(93%, 9.89, +0.13) Mehul definitely closed the gap this season, and is basically an equal now with anyone not named Iglar. It's becoming harder and harder to improve, and I think he's close to his peak now though maybe not quite there yet. The next two years will probably be his best. He has continued to improve more than anyone else at the top, and it really started showing dividends the second half of this year. His goals for this period of his best play: 1st. Catch Benda for world no. 2. This would seem to be only a matter of time. Late this coming year or early the following year seems to be the most likely timeframe. 2nd. Win the World Tour Finals and a Grand Slam. The WTF he has a good shot at, almost made it this year. Unfortunately there are no indoor Slams; his best chance will likely come at Wimbledon, with clay a weakness and Iglar focusing on the hardcourts those are unlikely as well. I think he's got a solid chance to take one over the next couple of years, but it's far from a sure thing. 3rd. Play Iglar as often as possible. Off clay, Mehul really has no other rivals that are his equal right now. Catching Iglar for the #1 spot will almost certainly be impossible, but his goal will be to beat everyone else and give himself as many chances as he can for upsets, esp. in the big events. 4. David Alvarez(86%, 9.63, -0.04). Alvarez diversified his game well this year, took advantage of fading rivals and is holding off the march of time admirably. He is on the downslope though, no question about it at 29. 5. Perry Hogue(85%, 9.58, -0.14). Now in a steep decline, which I expect will continue this year. He'll probably just be another guy floating around the bottom of the Top 10 by year's end. 6. Viktor Goncharenko(86%, 9.48, -0.04). His second renaissance this last year has more to do with the collapse of others, but the top Russian's game is holding together better than many. Still, the next generation should be booting him soon. 7. David Almagro(82%, 9.56, -0.14) Almagro has done nothing for the past few months, he's over 31, and he's still got the game to hang around in this relatively weak era if his manager was doing their job. It's a tragedy really for him to go out this way. 8. Cestmir Marcek(89%, 9.54, -0.04) Marcek appears to be just a hair over the hill now. He started to slip a few months ago. It's possible he can regain his footing, but more than likely he's done about all that he's going to do. 9. Pierce Gaskell(93%, 9.67, +0.08) Gaskell is the clear 4th best in Iglar's age bracket(after the champion, Mehul, and Hammerstein) and I figure him to be around 5th by year's end. He has outstanding speed and enough mental toughness to make up for a lack of baseline technique and keep moving up, but probably not enough to ever really be a serious threat. 10. Julian Hammerstein(93%, 9.96, +0.08) Hammerstein is the second-best player in the world from where I sit, but he continues to languish due to substandard management and an apparently lack of motivation. His focus wanders from singles to doubles and back again, he pulls out of the WTC then re-enters again to start this year -- you never know whether he's coming or going. Too much doubles and a lack of preparation kept him from being a major threat last year. The door's still open, though not as wide as once it was. Does he want it? With proper preparation, he could still be Iglar's most potent challenger. It's doubtful that will ever come to pass though. Other Notables 11. Marcel Bahana(95%, 9.88, +0.13) The next Spanish hope rocketed up from the mid-30s to the edge of the Top 10 last year. He's the heir apparent to Benda on clay; the question is when, not if. He's still being overplayed, but not as badly as he was a year or two ago. As impressive as Girsh's rise in the rankings was this year, Bahana's was even better. 19. Girish Girsh(98%, 9.54, +0.31) Girsh is about to begin the Bahana Chase in earnest, a term that is funnier if you mistake the middle consonant of the Spaniard's name. Ok, it is to me at least. He's younger and better than any of the players between them except Topolski, who doesn't count since he's in unrestrained free-fall. Only Groeneveldt is even close. However, this is not really what matters; what matters is getting results against the Top 8 players that he will be consistently facing in the big tournaments. After all, you don't get any bonus points for losing closer matches than your less-skilled contemporaries; you've got to win. Against players he's likely to face in those situations, i.e. the round of 16 trying to advance to the quarterfinals, Girsh didn't do well last year. That's really putting it kindly, as he was winless in a dozen opportunities after escaping Challengers a few months into the year. 2042 should be different for him. That assumes facts not in evidence, but I rate him as being right there with Marcek, a bit ahead of Goncharenko and a bit behind Hogue as 9th or 10th best in the world. That's not bad for a guy who is still some months away from his 23rd birthday, but he needs to start pulling the odd upset against the more vulnerable members of the Top 10 soon. He can only rise incrementally until that begins to happen. The older, less durable, eventually vulnerable Spanish phenom will remain out of his reach for at least another year, but time is on Girsh's side. 2351. Anil Manohar(62%, 6.26, -0.24) It's an ugly thing, getting old ... 11(J). Prakash Mooljee(83%, 6.22, +1.12) The flip side of that coin. Mooljee is still a junior and basically an equal to Manohar now.