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Brian Swartz · 07-27-2016, 05:18 PM

World Tour Finals - The 500s

The Swiss Indoors and Valencia Open, both Indoor events, have now set the stage for the final push in Paris. Qualifying is now underway and the first round will begin shortly. But first, here's how the picture has changed.

7 of the 9 remaining hopefuls played in one of the two events, with the French contingent(Theodore Bourdet and Davide Poilblan) electing to skip these events and focus on their home-country Masters. This is a catch-22 type of decision, as they both definitely needed the rest, but their eggs are now all in one basket and it certainly cost them some ground, at least temporarily. On the other hand they'll be fresher and more focused to make a deep run where it will count the most. Time will tell if this is effective or not.

Here's how the others fared:

** Pierce Gaskell was the top seed in Valencia. The critical moment was a semi-final matchup with (4)Agustin Herrera, himself a long-shot for the Tour Finals. Gaskell won in three sets before losing to surprise winner Roberto Martin(ESP) in the final. As a result, he failed to add to his total; he needed to win the title to improve.

** Agustin Herrera added 180 points to his total despite the loss, as he came in with a very weak resume in the 500 events. He still has a very long way to go and will need an improbably deep run in Paris to qualify. To have any realistic chance he really needed to win the title.

** Mugur Kinczllers(Martin) and Thiago Herrera(Sava Cirakovic) both lost in the Valencia QFs, close 3-set matches against lower-ranked opponents. Herrera added a meager 20 points by this and Kinczllers' total was unchanged.

** Bjorn Benda was seeded second at the Swiss Indoors, where three more hopefuls participated. He lost a long tiebreak in the first set against Tobia Alberti(ITA), and it eventually cost him their QF meeting in three sets. Having an open spot, he still added 90 points giving him a bit of a boost, but he's not home yet.

** Elias Trulsen, who is horribly overplayed, won just a single game against Roger Federer in bowing out of the Swiss quarterfinals. It turns out that one reason for Trulsen's disappointing year is that he's focusing a lot on doubles right now. I think this is premature, but perhaps he doesn't care that much about finishing strong in singles. Either way, it was enough to earn him an 80-point bump, and put him narrowly back in the field over Bourdet ... for the moment.

** Garreth McCuskey made the semifinals, where he ran into champion Anil Mehul. I also had Mooljee in this event - he lost to Mehul in the quarters. McCuskey gained 80 pts. here over his next-best result, not nearly as much as he needed.

After all of that, the list of qualifiers for Russia in a month's time now expanded. The minimum points required to qualify fell to 4180, meaning that Gaskell and Kinczllers are the 5th and 6th players to officially make it. The rest of the standings, with 7 still alive for the final two spots:

Bjorn Benda -- 3820
Elias Trulsen -- 3485
---------------------------------
Theodore Bourdet -- 3475
Thiago Herrera -- 3290

Garreth McCuskey -- 3075
Agustin Herrera -- 2875
Davide Poilblan -- 2745

It definitely still looks like Trulsen vs. Bourdet for that final spot, but even Benda needs to make the semifinals in Paris to guarantee he gets in without help. Everyone else would have to win, and for some that might not even be enough. With Trulsen being completely exhausted, I think he'll depart early and Bourdet will join Benda in the final field. Everyone else would need to have a big week, and I'm not convinced any of them are capable of it.

As usual, I'll be reporting round-by-round as I am able on the goings-on at Paris until the field is complete. Girsh, Mehul, and Mooljee will all be there as well, and there are significant implications for all of them in finishing their season off strong.

07-27-2016, 05:18 PM	#443
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	World Tour Finals - The 500s The Swiss Indoors and Valencia Open, both Indoor events, have now set the stage for the final push in Paris. Qualifying is now underway and the first round will begin shortly. But first, here's how the picture has changed. 7 of the 9 remaining hopefuls played in one of the two events, with the French contingent(Theodore Bourdet and Davide Poilblan) electing to skip these events and focus on their home-country Masters. This is a catch-22 type of decision, as they both definitely needed the rest, but their eggs are now all in one basket and it certainly cost them some ground, at least temporarily. On the other hand they'll be fresher and more focused to make a deep run where it will count the most. Time will tell if this is effective or not. Here's how the others fared: Pierce Gaskell was the top seed in Valencia. The critical moment was a semi-final matchup with (4)Agustin Herrera, himself a long-shot for the Tour Finals. Gaskell won in three sets before losing to surprise winner Roberto Martin(ESP) in the final. As a result, he failed to add to his total; he needed to win the title to improve. Agustin Herrera added 180 points to his total despite the loss, as he came in with a very weak resume in the 500 events. He still has a very long way to go and will need an improbably deep run in Paris to qualify. To have any realistic chance he really needed to win the title. Mugur Kinczllers(Martin) and Thiago Herrera(Sava Cirakovic) both lost in the Valencia QFs, close 3-set matches against lower-ranked opponents. Herrera added a meager 20 points by this and Kinczllers' total was unchanged. Bjorn Benda was seeded second at the Swiss Indoors, where three more hopefuls participated. He lost a long tiebreak in the first set against Tobia Alberti(ITA), and it eventually cost him their QF meeting in three sets. Having an open spot, he still added 90 points giving him a bit of a boost, but he's not home yet. Elias Trulsen, who is horribly overplayed, won just a single game against Roger Federer in bowing out of the Swiss quarterfinals. It turns out that one reason for Trulsen's disappointing year is that he's focusing a lot on doubles right now. I think this is premature, but perhaps he doesn't care that much about finishing strong in singles. Either way, it was enough to earn him an 80-point bump, and put him narrowly back in the field over Bourdet ... for the moment. Garreth McCuskey made the semifinals, where he ran into champion Anil Mehul. I also had Mooljee in this event - he lost to Mehul in the quarters. McCuskey gained 80 pts. here over his next-best result, not nearly as much as he needed. After all of that, the list of qualifiers for Russia in a month's time now expanded. The minimum points required to qualify fell to 4180, meaning that Gaskell and Kinczllers are the 5th and 6th players to officially make it. The rest of the standings, with 7 still alive for the final two spots: Bjorn Benda -- 3820 Elias Trulsen -- 3485 --------------------------------- Theodore Bourdet -- 3475 Thiago Herrera -- 3290 Garreth McCuskey -- 3075 Agustin Herrera -- 2875 Davide Poilblan -- 2745 It definitely still looks like Trulsen vs. Bourdet for that final spot, but even Benda needs to make the semifinals in Paris to guarantee he gets in without help. Everyone else would have to win, and for some that might not even be enough. With Trulsen being completely exhausted, I think he'll depart early and Bourdet will join Benda in the final field. Everyone else would need to have a big week, and I'm not convinced any of them are capable of it. As usual, I'll be reporting round-by-round as I am able on the goings-on at Paris until the field is complete. Girsh, Mehul, and Mooljee will all be there as well, and there are significant implications for all of them in finishing their season off strong.