Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - [Poll] How many actual COVID pandemic deaths in the USA (once the pandemic is over)?

sterlingice · 06-19-2020, 08:12 PM

I'm having such a hard time getting my head around the final numbers. There are 4 huge factors in play for me

1) We've already got 150K deaths in 3 months. But that does include hitting our most dense area hard. But, man, 50K deaths per month!
2) How many people are immune now? It seems like maybe 10% across the board. So if you think you have to get to 60-70%, that means take the deaths and multiple by, say, 6. 6x150= OUCH. 900K. The 1918 pandemic was like 650K in the USA (though our population was a lot smaller).
3) But that's if we just let it run rampant through our population at the rate it went. Increased social distancing, masks, etc. should reduce some of the fatality rate. Hopefully there's some downward pressure from the virus itself - usually viruses get less deadly as they go along so maybe that cuts our number.
4) This is a race to see how low we can get it before we get a vaccine that, in theory, should end it. Or the really low probability of a silver bullet anti-viral. But I'd think we'd have heard smoke by now if we had a chance at one.
5) This also assumes immunity ends the pandemic or a vaccine or downward pressure. If herd immunity does nothing and the vaccine progress is slower than expected. Well, that's just scary.

So, my back of the napkin sketch would be.

If left unchecked, virus kills about 50-100K per month (fewer now, more in the fall) up to 1M before we get herd immunity.
If we get an effective vaccine out this year (highly unlikely), we should end around 400Kish, right?
If it goes on longer, we go towards that higher number.
Then you put on a multiplier about how the number could be decreased by viral downward pressure or behavior changes.

So, if I had to pick all of those things out, I think we rush out a vaccine early-mid next year, but by then we'd have already seen like 500K deaths (50K x 10 months) plus the banked 150K deaths already. Hopefully the virus gets weaker and we get something like 0.8 on that 500K. That gets us closer to 400K + 150K. And I feel that's optimistic. But that puts me in the 500K-750K bucket.

SI

06-19-2020, 08:12 PM	#10
sterlingice Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Back in Houston!	I'm having such a hard time getting my head around the final numbers. There are 4 huge factors in play for me 1) We've already got 150K deaths in 3 months. But that does include hitting our most dense area hard. But, man, 50K deaths per month! 2) How many people are immune now? It seems like maybe 10% across the board. So if you think you have to get to 60-70%, that means take the deaths and multiple by, say, 6. 6x150= OUCH. 900K. The 1918 pandemic was like 650K in the USA (though our population was a lot smaller). 3) But that's if we just let it run rampant through our population at the rate it went. Increased social distancing, masks, etc. should reduce some of the fatality rate. Hopefully there's some downward pressure from the virus itself - usually viruses get less deadly as they go along so maybe that cuts our number. 4) This is a race to see how low we can get it before we get a vaccine that, in theory, should end it. Or the really low probability of a silver bullet anti-viral. But I'd think we'd have heard smoke by now if we had a chance at one. 5) This also assumes immunity ends the pandemic or a vaccine or downward pressure. If herd immunity does nothing and the vaccine progress is slower than expected. Well, that's just scary. So, my back of the napkin sketch would be. If left unchecked, virus kills about 50-100K per month (fewer now, more in the fall) up to 1M before we get herd immunity. If we get an effective vaccine out this year (highly unlikely), we should end around 400Kish, right? If it goes on longer, we go towards that higher number. Then you put on a multiplier about how the number could be decreased by viral downward pressure or behavior changes. So, if I had to pick all of those things out, I think we rush out a vaccine early-mid next year, but by then we'd have already seen like 500K deaths (50K x 10 months) plus the banked 150K deaths already. Hopefully the virus gets weaker and we get something like 0.8 on that 500K. That gets us closer to 400K + 150K. And I feel that's optimistic. But that puts me in the 500K-750K bucket. SI __________________ Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!"