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I went with 400-500k with the following assumptions:
1. About 160k actual deaths currently.
2. Roughly 20-30k deaths per month through the end of the year.
3. Deaths slow somewhat with more treatment options. A Biden administration (shrug) puts a much greater emphasis on trying to tamp down on deaths, puts out guidelines (and/or pleasing with people) and provides more federal support to states in need.
4. A vaccine is developed early next year and becomes widely available towards the end of 2021.
Here’s hoping we can beat that estimate.
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