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200-300k, this is based upon the fact that the death rate is lower for the younger part of the population and so long as the hospitals don't overflow they'll keep things down to a low percentage of actual deaths.
(plus my hope that they do get a vaccine in early 2021 ... I fully expect Trump to announce and roll one out for the election, but as to its effectiveness ... I expect it to perform similarly to his last favorite drug)
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