I don't know which projection to use so I just grabbed the UW one.
COVID-19
This projection has us at just over 400K by the end of the year. However, it also has us going over our current "plateau" of 900 deaths up to a new one around 2500 per day.
These are the notes associated with the projection estimates
Quote:
* We extended our forecasts to January 1. We expect the daily death rate in the United States, because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year.
* If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, namely no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1, then the death toll could increase to 620,000 by January 1. Compared to the reference scenario, this would be 210,000 more deaths from now to the end of the year.
* Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the US. Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 288,000, or 122,000 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 30% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year.
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FYI: If we average our 900 per day that we've been at for the last month, we'll be around 300K by year's end.
SI