Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Swartz
Polling this far out historically doesn't mean jack squat though. That's esp. true of state polls, because you need a significant amount of them over a period of time to get meaningful data, and that's just not something that's done except in the run-up to the actual election. One poll on it's own is almost completely meaningless. When you have things like the recent results in Kentucky and Virginia … are those not places that matter? Does Pennsylvania not matter, where multiple seats were flipped? Does Ohio not matter, where Democrats nearly won a district that went for Trump by 11 points in 2016? Why are there so many more Republicans retiring than Democrats? All the reliable indicators point in the same direction.
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100% correct. A year before the 2016 election Clinton lead the GOP field by a 50-32 margin.
A Year Out, Ignore General Election Polls | FiveThirtyEight