[Brian Swartz]

2068 Season Preview

1. Nicolas Perez (93%, 8.72, +0.06)

Let's take a moment to note that Perez now has 5.5 Skill. I've never seen that before, with anyone. I'm pretty sure even Mateo Kaspar never got that high. I've been able to sporadically hit 5.4, briefly, with a couple of players. And Nicolas is still improving.

2. Harald Wentz (94%, 8.63, +0.13)

This number says Wentz, who has surpassed the aging Rhodes to claim the title of world's top server (4.4), is good enough to make things interesting if Perez hits a cold streak.

3. John Hart (84%, 8.53, -0.16)

Looks pretty bad until you realize that he's about two-thirds trained in doubles already.

4. Chisulo Mpakati (94%, 8.60, +0.14)

Like Wentz, he's still not world-class in terms of technique from the back of the court. His serve has reached a sufficient standard, but definitely still relies on his impressive overall athleticism to make up the difference. It doesn't quite ... but it's close.

5. Ollie Haas (91%, 8.47, -0.02)

In theory at least, Haas is at his peak as a strong all-around player with no weaknesses but also no spectacular strengths to allow him to match the top contenders. Looks for all the world like a best-of-the-rest gatekeeper.

6. Il-Sung Jung (93%, 8.71, +0.01)

Progression halted this year because he put more effort into doubles. The phrase 'you can't fix stupid' is a bit harsh but I think it applies here. Slides into a virtual tie with Perez for theoretical best player in the world, but practically speaking it isn't nearly as close.

7. Tim de Jong (90%, 8.39, -0.09)

While his abilities declined, de Jong rose from 19th to 7th. That's ... weird. It's also a bit early, even for a relatively modest endurance player, for a regression of this size. Regardless of the why, this is another indication he might just fade backwards again.

8. Calisto Aviles (95%, 8.55, +0.11)

The fastest man since Meikeljohn appears to be putting in the work required to become more than a fringe, seasonal concern.

9. Tobias Velilla (95%, 8.43, +0.13)

The serve is right up there with that of Wentz. The rest of the game isn't quite, but that's true of like almost everyone. Favorable odds for him to make the Tour Finals this year I'd say.

10. Ali Solberg (87%, 8.36, -0.26)

That there is known as falling off a cliff. Largely intentional of course.

Top 10 Analysis

'65 Avg - 8.573
'66 - 8.532
'67 - 8.526
'68 - 8.539 (+0.13)

Continued gains and the better players getting up where they belong make this the best group we've seen in three years. It should keep improving for at least the next year or two as we have 6 of the current players improving and only 3 declining (Haas is sort of just there, and probably won't move much). Also interesting is that there is now nobody outside the Top 10 who even comes close to this average, so the players who are here, excepting Solberg who's gone soon, are those who should be. Who is ready to step up and fill in the gaps?

12. Lucas Perez (93%, 8.34, +0.02)

Welp, that there explains why Perez is just treading water. At his age, with solid (3.5) endurance, there's just no good reason for him not to have improved more.

16. Clavet Moniotte (92%, 8.42, +0.17)

After last year's disappointing slight regression, this is a huge step upwards. Unlike Mathou, he shouldn't be done improving and Clavet should seize the spot of top French player firmly here. If he plays his cards right, a berth at the bottom of the Top 10 isn't out of the question.

18. Algot Hakanson (92%, 8.27, +0.06)

Doesn't have the baseline chops and at this point there isn't enough time left to develop it. Hakanson will pass up some of the veterans still, but I don't see him rising above the teens.

21. Amrik Kasaravalli (93%, 8.38, -0.04)

This is one of those cases where I know enough to be able to say the regression isn't real. Amrik is actually still improving a bit ... a little bit. I'd say low teens probably for him this season.

22. Sushant Chiba (80%, 8.29, -0.07)

And here, it's probably worse than the number looks. If not, it soon will be.

23. Acke Kjaerstad (95%, 8.46, +0.08)

Continued modest gains, as well as being somewhat of an underachiever the past couple of years. Kjaerstad would seem to be overdue for a breakout, and seems clearly superior to the higher-ranking Hakanson but stays in his shadow.

25. Fabio Cagide (98%, 8.33, ??)

Cagide's rising stardom is fueled by remarkable athleticism. He's quite fast and might be the current strongest player on the tour. Technique is still coming but it's getting there, and he's definitely good enough to be where he is. Spain has a bright future indeed and should begin to be a major threat in the WTC again.

29. Ross Vicars (100%, 8.27, ??)

Vicars here is even more impressive, and should be the next great American player. Elite power and fairly good speed, not the athlete Cagide is on either front but definitely quality. Well-developed for his age, he also boasts elite marks in the mental game and an even better ability to feed off the support of the crowd. That will count for a lot at the USO and multiple Masters where he will have a partisan following. And he also has high-level willingness to train. Ross is a big-time threat to all of our up-and-coming Anilophiles for sure.

33. Joao Narciso (97%, 8.05, +0.18)

Continued steady progress.

35. Helmut Edlund (97%, 8.05, +0.28)

Heh. That's about as close as you can get with these two.

39. Willy Weigl (97%, 7.93, +0.16)

Weigl is lagging behind a little more in baseline play, holding him back a bit.

57. Mark Smith (100%, 7.87, +0.40)

62. Tommy Fitzpatrick (99%, 8.00, +0.39)

You can see the bunching-up here in terms of our young players. There's barely a sheet of paper between this group from Narciso through Fitzpatrick. Until they all get decisively out of the Challenger tier, an increasing amount of carnage will be had as they jostle for position.

70. Jozef Weinkove (101%, 7.32, ??)

Weinkove is good, but not spectacular by any stretch. Definitely seems to be overranked at this point.

78. Shakti Vemireddy (99%, 7.91, +0.34)

Not gaining quite as fast as the others, but still better than his ranking would indicate.

83. Nasir Chittoor (99%, 7.90, +0.43)

Keeping pace basically. My goal was 8.0 and he's actually not that far from it - it'll come on the next train he does in a few weeks. Of course similar boosts will probably be had by other players in that time. Sometime this year he'll switch over to singles-only, 'Challenger Hero' mode. But it's not quite time yet with the crowded group ahead of him. I'm rooting for all of them just to they can get the heck out of the way. Meanwhile I have exactly 1.0 more to get for the 8.9 goal, and about six years to get there. Of course, it's the hardest point on the scale to acquire.

125. Ritwik Intodia (99%, 7.85, +0.43)

A sharp upward move would seem to be in the offing here.

182. Helmut Hoetker (101%, 7.31, +0.45)

Thought this would be a hair higher, but still a respectable progression.

200. Lubos Rucklov (101%, 7.40, ??)

Rucklov is interesting to be sure, with top-shelf power and mentality, good speed, but also some effort having already been spent on doubles.

209. Rakesh Kayeeda (99%, 7.66, +0.44)

The lack of success last year isn't because he hasn't been working at it. I think it's just been bad luck, but it will come. He's actually down a little from 192nd this time last season, and that's just silly.

294. Chiang-hui Cheng (96%, 6.79, ??)

Possibly not ready for challengers yet, but if not he'll get there soon as he approaches physical peak.

418. Satyagit Guha (99%, 6.82, +0.39)

900. Mike Corey (95%, 6.34, ??)

Strong talent (4.7), but Corey doesn't have the dedication, athleticism, etc. to really stand out. Good speed is his most notable asset.

4(J). Patrick Burmann (98%, 5.15, ??)

Burmann has better mentality, but the athletic side isn't as good. Long-term, I project Corey to have the better career of the two.

192(J). Joseph Charriol (81%, 3.21, ??)

Charriol is physically very weak, somewhat so mentally. Does have pretty good speed and endurance is a little above-average but I think there's better material out there to be found, frankly.

804(J). Raul Almaraz (80%, 2.55, ??)

Another player who probably should be replaced for similar reasons.

812(J). Rimvidas Batchev (61%, 1.79, ??)

And I make the same recommendation here as well. Batchev has reasonably good talent but will peak at 2.7 endurance with athleticism and mentality all definitely on the low side. It's hard to do much with that.

957(J). Eduardo Yroz (73%, 1.96, ??)

Yroz has a little more about him. A meteoric style player, he'll bring himself up to adequate athleticism, 3.2 endurance, and has a pretty good mental game as well. Not a superstar candidate but there's enough here to fashion a player who could spend some time among the Top 32 before he's done.