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Manchin is also pro-ACA (and at the very least said he would refuse to vote against it unless there was an actual plan to replace it). He likely wouldn't switch unless the GOP got serious about health care.
Not to mention he's 73. Not sure if he'd run when he'd be 77. And if he doesn't that's an easy GOP pickup with the next Senator being substantially more right wing.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages"
-Tennessee Williams
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