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Originally Posted by JPhillips
1. As candidates leave the race, how much of their support goes to Biden? He's got a solid 30-35% now, but where do the Harris/Warren/Sanders/Buttigeig folks go when they drop out?
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The Morning Consult poll is good for this as they have a "Second Choice" question:
The State of the 2020 Democratic Primary
The shocking thing is that the second choice for Biden supporters are Sanders (25%) and the second choice for Sanders supporters is Biden (34%) - it's like you have a bunch of people who just want a well known old white guy
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So Warren supporters' second choice is Sanders and Harris at 21% (with Biden at 19%). Buttigieg supporters' second choice is Warren at 25%, Biden at 22%, and Harris at 17%. Harris supporters' second choice is 28% Biden, 21% Warren, and 11% Sanders.
It looks like Biden and Sanders will get some votes, but Warren seems well situated if Buttigieg (or even Harris) drops. Harris seems to also benefit if one of the other Big 5 drop out (aside from Sanders - who only 7% list her as their second choice).