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Brian Swartz · 08-07-2015, 12:43 AM

2040 Outlook

Here's how the Top 20 shakes out in my universe, Game World 1, as the new year approaches:

1. Benda(9.93, 93%, 0-2)

One thing I like about how this works out is that we can see right away that an even 10.0 would be a pretty darn good estimate for a 'great player'. This provides for easy comparisons further down the list. The % given is each player's current age %, i.e. development stage. A rule of thumb I've seen but never verified is that 92-94% equates a player's peak. If so, then Benda is really at the apex of his career, which would make sense. It will be interesting(at least for a math-nerd such as I am) to track the numbers here over the next couple of years and see whether that is completely accurate or not. I also included Mehul's record against these player's in 2039, as I was curious how close he'd come to playing like a member of the elite the past 12 months.

2. Prieto(9.64, 85%, 0-2)
3. Elder(9.87, 87%, 2-1)
4. Hogue(9.66, 90%, 0-2)

Hogue depended heavily on his athleticism, and as mentioned it's starting to go quickly now. Elder, by contrast, has fabulous mental strength(4.4) which has allowed him to overcome some minor deficiencies ... so far. It ends with everyone eventually.

5. Goncharenko(9.56, 91%, 0-1)
6. Iglar(10.03, 97%, 0-2)

Iglar is a beast. There's just no two ways about that. He's trained up his skills noticeably in the offseason period. I see double-digit slams coming. The only good news for me is that he's aging faster than Mehul. I don't think that will be enough to close the gap though.

7. Alastra(9.52, 83%, 2-0)

It's always a bit painful to watch this part of a great player's career, when they simply don't have it anymore.

8. Almagro(9.89, 86%, 0-0)
9. Topolski(9.82, 92%, 0-0)

You almost don't have to look up the fact that both of these two have the same manager. They should both be Top 5 at a bare minimum, but they've missed Slams and had other mistakes each of the past two seasons. That kind of margin for error just doesn't exist.

10. Alvarez(9.66, 91%, 0-0)

Alvarez is as good as much of the Top 10, but he never got to the point of being better that you need to reach to really break through much higher.

11. Blanco(9.44, 91%, 0-0)
12. Anil Mehul(9.63, 97%, NA)

Ah, there's my hero! More on how his year looks in a bit.

13. Hammerstein(9.80, 97%, 2-2)

No matter how you slice it, his mental game and near-superhuman strength still appear to be a little more than enough to trump Mehul's world's-best baseline skills.

14-16. Becerril, Gorritepe, Kucerovic ... all well past their prime and not really worth delving into here. Total record of 3-4.

17. Gaskell(9.61, 96%, 3-1)
18. Borrman(9.33, 93%, 0-0)
19. Mockler(9.19, 96%, 1-0)
20. Groeneveldt(9.41, 96%, 0-0)

A few other notables:

39. Marcel Bahana(9.69, 99%)

Best of the younger players, just shy of 22 years old, he's powered by the best mental game(4.7) I've yet seen in a big talent. Skill is still not quite there yet but he could be scary good if handled properly. With #3 marsel as his manager, that's quite likely to happen.

64. Chittoor(8.82, 98%)
98. Girish Girsh(8.79, 99%)

Doing well, but as mentioned there's still work to do. Although the ranking gap is still significant, he is very, very close to becoming Sri Lanka's second-best player.

168(J). Prakash Mooljee(4.00, 68%)

Illustration of just how big the gap is to the youngsters.

Analysis

One thing that jumps out right away is the number of older, in-decline players at the top. Alastra's generation was packed but they are on their way out. By my count I would expect 13 of the current Top 20 will be less of a factor at this time next year than they are right now, with a few expected to basically free-fall now. Anil Mehul doesn't appear to have much to worry about from below either. The 17-20 spots reveal Gaskell as the only possible threat and he's aging a little faster along with being a player who depends more heavily on his outstanding athleticism. He got Mehul once last year and it may happen again but in the long-term, not a concern.

Benda and Iglar are the top two, period, with Elder/Almagro/Topolski the next tier. Elder and Almagro are going to be fading steadily though and Topolski has been misused. Hammerstein will probably push ahead of Mehul a bit this year, but really it's only the top two that should be able to consistently beat him. He should be competitive with the Austrian and everyone else as he continues to slowly improve and the rest of existing power structure, at varying rates, crumbles around him. Really Anil is set to benefit just as much from a weak era in the game as from the work that has been put in.

I think by the end of the year Bahana will make some real noise but he's got a lot of ground to make up in the rankings before he can be a consistent threat and he's going to have to start contending with his longevity issues soon(101%). It will be interesting to see in the next couple of years to see if any of the players who are roughly Girsh's contemporaries manage to distinguish themselves. Overall it seems so far that there are a lot of them capable of being good, but how many have a chance to be excellent or great, it's a bit too early to tell at right now.

So at the low end I put Mehul as Top 8 by year's end, but I can see him reaching as high as 4th. Still pretty heady territory regardless. If I had to guess right now I'd say at his career apex he can hit #2 in the world at some point when Benda starts to plummet in a few years, which is rather remarkable -- but I don't think he'll surpass Iglar at any juncture. This is of course an educated guesstimate and I can't state that will happen with any certainty, just my best call from here. He's got probably two years or a little more until he hits peak, with marginal improvements in that timeframe. I'll need to continue to make small adjustments and learn the nuances of managing a player at the very top -- every year there have been new wrinkles. After the Paris doubles run jacked up his doubles ranking, he'll be representing Sri Lanka in that category in the WTC.

Looking at the Head-2-Heads mentioned above, he was just 2-8 against the Top 5, both wins coming against Elder. That accounts for almost half of his losses this season. Against the next five(6-10), the combined mark was only 2-2 -- it's rather remarkable that he didn't play Almagro, Topolski, or Alvarez even once in '39, and has never met David Almagro in his entire career! The #11-20 combined total is 9-7, and by elimination then his record against opponents who are now 21 or lower in the rankings was a sparkling 39-3. That last category won't improve a whole lot; he'll still be vulnerable to those kinds of players at least on clay. To really push through this year as he needs to, Mehul will have to more consistently go deep in the Slams and Masters, which will involve beating players in the Top 20 category more often than the 13-17(43%) composite he put together this year. I'd like to see that up to something more like at least two wins for each loss in 2040.

I'll also be closely watching the Girsh/Chittoor developments. I would hazard a guess at this point that sometime between end of group play in the spring, and the knockout rounds in the fall, Girsh will surpass Chittoor and become the second representative for Sri Lanka in the World Team Cup. A lot could happen there either way though and it's far from certain the switch will happen this year. The sooner the better, as far as I'm concerned.

Next up is the WTC tie against Romania, currently underway, with the Australian Open to follow three weeks later.

08-07-2015, 12:43 AM	#93
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2040 Outlook Here's how the Top 20 shakes out in my universe, Game World 1, as the new year approaches: 1. Benda(9.93, 93%, 0-2) One thing I like about how this works out is that we can see right away that an even 10.0 would be a pretty darn good estimate for a 'great player'. This provides for easy comparisons further down the list. The % given is each player's current age %, i.e. development stage. A rule of thumb I've seen but never verified is that 92-94% equates a player's peak. If so, then Benda is really at the apex of his career, which would make sense. It will be interesting(at least for a math-nerd such as I am) to track the numbers here over the next couple of years and see whether that is completely accurate or not. I also included Mehul's record against these player's in 2039, as I was curious how close he'd come to playing like a member of the elite the past 12 months. 2. Prieto(9.64, 85%, 0-2) 3. Elder(9.87, 87%, 2-1) 4. Hogue(9.66, 90%, 0-2) Hogue depended heavily on his athleticism, and as mentioned it's starting to go quickly now. Elder, by contrast, has fabulous mental strength(4.4) which has allowed him to overcome some minor deficiencies ... so far. It ends with everyone eventually. 5. Goncharenko(9.56, 91%, 0-1) 6. Iglar(10.03, 97%, 0-2) Iglar is a beast. There's just no two ways about that. He's trained up his skills noticeably in the offseason period. I see double-digit slams coming. The only good news for me is that he's aging faster than Mehul. I don't think that will be enough to close the gap though. 7. Alastra(9.52, 83%, 2-0) It's always a bit painful to watch this part of a great player's career, when they simply don't have it anymore. 8. Almagro(9.89, 86%, 0-0) 9. Topolski(9.82, 92%, 0-0) You almost don't have to look up the fact that both of these two have the same manager. They should both be Top 5 at a bare minimum, but they've missed Slams and had other mistakes each of the past two seasons. That kind of margin for error just doesn't exist. 10. Alvarez(9.66, 91%, 0-0) Alvarez is as good as much of the Top 10, but he never got to the point of being better that you need to reach to really break through much higher. 11. Blanco(9.44, 91%, 0-0) 12. Anil Mehul(9.63, 97%, NA) Ah, there's my hero! More on how his year looks in a bit. 13. Hammerstein(9.80, 97%, 2-2) No matter how you slice it, his mental game and near-superhuman strength still appear to be a little more than enough to trump Mehul's world's-best baseline skills. 14-16. Becerril, Gorritepe, Kucerovic ... all well past their prime and not really worth delving into here. Total record of 3-4. 17. Gaskell(9.61, 96%, 3-1) 18. Borrman(9.33, 93%, 0-0) 19. Mockler(9.19, 96%, 1-0) 20. Groeneveldt(9.41, 96%, 0-0) A few other notables: 39. Marcel Bahana(9.69, 99%) Best of the younger players, just shy of 22 years old, he's powered by the best mental game(4.7) I've yet seen in a big talent. Skill is still not quite there yet but he could be scary good if handled properly. With #3 marsel as his manager, that's quite likely to happen. 64. Chittoor(8.82, 98%) 98. Girish Girsh(8.79, 99%) Doing well, but as mentioned there's still work to do. Although the ranking gap is still significant, he is very, very close to becoming Sri Lanka's second-best player. 168(J). Prakash Mooljee(4.00, 68%) Illustration of just how big the gap is to the youngsters. Analysis One thing that jumps out right away is the number of older, in-decline players at the top. Alastra's generation was packed but they are on their way out. By my count I would expect 13 of the current Top 20 will be less of a factor at this time next year than they are right now, with a few expected to basically free-fall now. Anil Mehul doesn't appear to have much to worry about from below either. The 17-20 spots reveal Gaskell as the only possible threat and he's aging a little faster along with being a player who depends more heavily on his outstanding athleticism. He got Mehul once last year and it may happen again but in the long-term, not a concern. Benda and Iglar are the top two, period, with Elder/Almagro/Topolski the next tier. Elder and Almagro are going to be fading steadily though and Topolski has been misused. Hammerstein will probably push ahead of Mehul a bit this year, but really it's only the top two that should be able to consistently beat him. He should be competitive with the Austrian and everyone else as he continues to slowly improve and the rest of existing power structure, at varying rates, crumbles around him. Really Anil is set to benefit just as much from a weak era in the game as from the work that has been put in. I think by the end of the year Bahana will make some real noise but he's got a lot of ground to make up in the rankings before he can be a consistent threat and he's going to have to start contending with his longevity issues soon(101%). It will be interesting to see in the next couple of years to see if any of the players who are roughly Girsh's contemporaries manage to distinguish themselves. Overall it seems so far that there are a lot of them capable of being good, but how many have a chance to be excellent or great, it's a bit too early to tell at right now. So at the low end I put Mehul as Top 8 by year's end, but I can see him reaching as high as 4th. Still pretty heady territory regardless. If I had to guess right now I'd say at his career apex he can hit #2 in the world at some point when Benda starts to plummet in a few years, which is rather remarkable -- but I don't think he'll surpass Iglar at any juncture. This is of course an educated guesstimate and I can't state that will happen with any certainty, just my best call from here. He's got probably two years or a little more until he hits peak, with marginal improvements in that timeframe. I'll need to continue to make small adjustments and learn the nuances of managing a player at the very top -- every year there have been new wrinkles. After the Paris doubles run jacked up his doubles ranking, he'll be representing Sri Lanka in that category in the WTC. Looking at the Head-2-Heads mentioned above, he was just 2-8 against the Top 5, both wins coming against Elder. That accounts for almost half of his losses this season. Against the next five(6-10), the combined mark was only 2-2 -- it's rather remarkable that he didn't play Almagro, Topolski, or Alvarez even once in '39, and has never met David Almagro in his entire career! The #11-20 combined total is 9-7, and by elimination then his record against opponents who are now 21 or lower in the rankings was a sparkling 39-3. That last category won't improve a whole lot; he'll still be vulnerable to those kinds of players at least on clay. To really push through this year as he needs to, Mehul will have to more consistently go deep in the Slams and Masters, which will involve beating players in the Top 20 category more often than the 13-17(43%) composite he put together this year. I'd like to see that up to something more like at least two wins for each loss in 2040. I'll also be closely watching the Girsh/Chittoor developments. I would hazard a guess at this point that sometime between end of group play in the spring, and the knockout rounds in the fall, Girsh will surpass Chittoor and become the second representative for Sri Lanka in the World Team Cup. A lot could happen there either way though and it's far from certain the switch will happen this year. The sooner the better, as far as I'm concerned. Next up is the WTC tie against Romania, currently underway, with the Australian Open to follow three weeks later.