[Brian Swartz]

2039

I've now journeyed through just over a full year in this thread, and we have come full circle back to the beginning of a new season.

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

All comparisons here at to last year's status.

Anil Mehul -- 73rd to 36th singles, 206th to 291st doubles. In terms of getting into seeded territory for the Slams, he's still on the outside looking in. This week we have the first round of the WTC against Japan, and he'll be playing in the Chennai(India) 250 the week after. Chances of moving up are slim, since the 'warmup' small events ahead of the Australian Open have a lot more top players than similar tournaments later in the year. This is simply a function of the schedule -- with the off-season over, everyone wants to get in optimal match condition for the first major of the year and start the season off well.

Girish Girsh -- 357th singles, 1557th doubles. A very solid first year on tour for Girsh, who still has a few months left of his teenage years. He's surpassed Manohar now and with Chittoor's termination he is my #2 player. In a couple years time he'll probably be playing in the WTC. Last week Girsh had a competitive QF loss in a big clay futures event, a decent result for a surface he's weak on.

Girsh is consistently soundly beating the players he's matched up with in practice weeks, so I'm going to be increasing his tournament frequency some until that is no longer the case. He needs more consistent quality competition right now. Physically he's almost at his peak, which he'll reach later this year it appears.

Anil Manohar -- 436th to 442nd singles, 659th to 1472nd doubles. Manohar worked on doubles almost exclusively this year, getting his projected trainer level up to excellent(4.0, or 3.998 to be precise). I discovered an undocumented change from some while back -- players don't have to retire until 45, trainers run from retirement to 65, both 5 years above the original limit. So I've got more time to build him up than I thought.

Paradoxically, he nearly stalled Father Time in singles with his best results in years for a few weeks in the fall, but then returned to planet earth with some early exits to finish the year. He's purely a low-level futures player at this point, Tier 3s mostly. I expect a significant fall in his ranking this year.

Prakash Mooljee -- Unranked. He's getting practice time in and balancing out his surface proficiencies right now, with an eye on his first junior event in probably about a month.

Manager Ranking -- As for me, I'm pretty much where I've been most of the year, hovering around 10k points and 29th(high is 27th). I'm hoping to start slowly moving up at some point this year again, though I have no real goals attach to where I am ranked, it's more just an overall measurement of how well everything else is going.


Stars of Tomorrow

In the WTF update I mentioned the three(now two) generations making an impact at the very top of the sport. This seems a good time to also get into the next couple of waves of players.

The Stars of Tomorrow are those players who are around 22 years old right now, Mehul included. As a group they are generally a little less than two years younger than Bjorn Benda. It's a sizable group, which I would divide into the following hierarchy:

** Antonin Iglar. He's the youngest of the group, with an elite(5th in the rankings) manager and a 5.0 trainer, former world No. 4 Anthony Williams. Iglar is also the best all-around athlete of the group, possessing excellent speed and strength both. His only weakness is that he's doesn't have quite the dedication to the game that some others do. Presently ranked 16th, he's far ahead of the curve and it's not out of the question that he could be a participant in this year's WTF. I think Iglar will surpass Alastra and become the best player since Gorritepe. Everyone in this generation of players is chasing him and probably fighting for second best.

** Julian Hammerstein & Anil Mehul. This is a natural rivalry in a lot of ways. Hammerstein is a mere two weeks older, and has Austria rising through the WTC ranks just as Sri Lanka does, as we saw last year with his straight-set win in the first meeting. I expect there will be many more of them. Hammerstein is slow for a top player and is a little behind Mehul in baseline skills, but his power is an overwhelming asset. He's got a solid trainer and a definite edge in the mental game, though dedication is once again a bit suspect. I expect him to have the advantage over Mehul, though on the faster surfaces Anil should have chances. Hammerstein is presently ranked 26th, second in this generation.

** The field. There's a lot of others who will push them. Perry Mockler(USA, 27th) has a big server but not much athleticism to back it up; John Condon(PHI, 29th) is a poor man's Hammerstein, a powerful clay specialist; Chad Dring(USA, 33rd) is tough and very fast, but spent too much time on the doubles court for a player of only good dedication; Siobhan O'Doherty(IRE, 35th) is a flake: supremely talented but he simply refuses to take being a professional athlete seriously(think Ernests Gulbis here); and Mikaiala Groeneveldt(LUX, 38th), another player without enough of a work ethic but don't sleep on him too much: he's a fabulous athlete, almost as fast as Dring and almost as strong as Hammerstein. That's wont carry him to the top, but it's more than enough to make him dangerous(Gael Monfils, anyone?).

Outlook

It looks like Mehul should be able to make it to the Top 5 at some point, but beyond that is anyone's guess. He's spending more time on the practice courts than any of the competitors here, but that won't completely make up for the lack of a trainer. Some of the players in 'the field' are definitely not managed optimally, so there's a lot of things still yet to be seen.


Young Guns

Here I'll take a quick look at the prospects for Girish Girsh, another roughly three years down the road. I should mention here that there are another seven Top 100 players who are about a year behind Mehul et al., so depending on how they pan out there could be an absolute logjam at the top when Girsh's generation rises up.

In his general age group a couple years younger, the leader right now is Matias Cortecedo(157th), extending Spain's seemingly unenending supply of talent. There is an absolute epidemic of 20-year-old 'burnouts'(i.e., players who both develop and age quickly) and probably a few of those will be relevant in a few years but most will not. There are only two other players in the under-20 age group currently ranked above Girsh: former junior #1 Mugur Kinczllers and previously mentioned American Joseph Skirrow.

The overall sense of things is that starting with Mehul's generation, the talent level and competition seems to be hitting a high point. I'd peg Girsh as a probable Top 10 player right now but trying to predict things this far out is a fool's errand for the most part. He's got a promising future, and will definitely be a successful pro, but how good remains to be seen.