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Voted for Tanglewood: Schmidty (209), Hoopsguy (213), Tyrith (234), Saldana (238), Blade (254)
I'm making a couple of assumptions in going after this list:
1.) There are (at least) three bad guys out there
2.) They did not vote together
3.) There is a pretty good chance that one bad guy was on the leading candidate
Schmidty - first vote, playing out a joke from over the weekend. No one had three votes at the time of casting the vote, no reason to think that Tanglewood would eventually be lynched over this. Dismayed to be considered at this point. If Schmidty is a henchman, then he was just trying to dump his vote fairly early in the day among a bunch of spread out candidates. And he really didn't want to be under review for this, which is why he is annoyed at it now. Likelihood: 40%
Hoopsguy - likelihood 0% (everyone operates with complete information on their own role
Tyrith - able to use the "self-defense" strategy for casting his vote. If a henchman/wizard, he knows that he has some votes in his pocket later in the day if needed. Likelihood 50%
Saldana - casts tie-breaking vote for Tanglewood, moving off of Dubb to do it. Generally bad guys try to avoid putting themselves in focus like this. Likelihood 30%
Blade - also gets a self-preservation defense for his vote since it was tied with about an hour left when he put his vote on Tanglewood. Was very much in harms way if there was a late vote switch by a honest wolf. Change of styles seems less likely to me as a bad guy than as a good guy. Likelihood: 25%
VOTE TYRITH
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