|
Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-Wimbledon Edition
There's obviously no question who #1 is, but I always find it somewhat surprising to see who rises to the top in the Race. Usually the clay players do pretty well at this early juncture, and then fade. Let's see how it's shaking out this year.
In
Mateo Kaspar -- 9,990
Prakash Mooljee -- 6,455
No auto-bid for Mooljee as Kaspar has swept all the Slams, but he's been consistent enough that his spot is already assured. Everyone else isn't there yet.
Probable
Gillo Fangio -- 4980
Johnny Browne -- 3980
Martin Zarco -- 3445
Ariel Borja -- 3370
Luc Janin -- 3360
Despite not having a fantastic year so far, Fangio clearly has a good grip on the #3 spot. Browne definitely has the inside track on hanging onto fourth, esp. when you consider the homecrowd advantage in the US events and his hardcourt proficiency. After that, the second half of the spots are very much still up in the air. It's a surprise to see Zarco this high ... but can he do anything in the second half? That's very much an open question.
Contenders
Khasan Zakirov -- 2850
--------------------------
Juan de los Santos -- 2660
Guus Dircx -- 2625
Right now we'd end up with one of these two veterans not getting in; Santos is odd man out right now after qualifying the past two years. He and Dircx have the same problem; clay is, relatively speaking, their best surface. Making up ground against players more proficient on hardcourt will be tough. But for now at least, they are right there ...
Long Shots
Sigmund Kronecker -- 2340
Andres Guardado -- 2225
Tomas Nicklas -- 2015
Tiosav Srbulovic -- 2015
Phillippe Besson -- 2005
Kire Zopp -- 1910
Milos Schmucker -- 1870
Jake Jolland -- 1825
So who really has a chance from this group? I'd have said Jolland before the season but other than a couple of decent moments it's really been a rough year for him. Doesn't look like he has what it takes, and he's got a big mountain to climb. Kronecker has the same problem as Santos/Dircx, being a clay player. Zopp is clearly not the guy he was a year or two ago, and even then he was never good enough to make it. Guardado has the best chance, but not much of one; he hasn't done enough since winning the Acapulco 500 early in the year.
Outlook
Looks to me like one of the clay specialists, Zarco/Santos/Dircx, is in and the other two out. Zarco has enough of a lead that he's probably the guy, though he could still plummet. I don't see anyone else likely to make a serious run at it.
|