|
The more I study the numbers, the less I feel I know. There's a gold mine in the NextGen stats, however, and every team has access to a lot more than the public has. That's where the analytics is these days.
The problem is that, like most complex worlds with millions of variables, using their insights for the general good is easier said than done.
Football is a chess match on a board that naturally tilts towards the end zone and pieces are largely interchangable. What players can do, what they're told to do and what they decide to do are three separate, but inter-related variables.
And it's up to the quarterback to sort that all out and make good decisions. So you have to decide whether you want the best decision-maker, or someone who can buy some more time before making a decision, or someone who can do more things with his arm - and obviously some combination of all three.
How do you scout that? At the college level, which plays a lot slower, a guy like Johnny Manziel can do all three things very well. At the next level, not so much. Or you get a guy like Tom Brady, who has decent arm strength, decent accuracy, can't buy you much time but has decent pocket awareness, but almost never makes a bad decision. That last skill is difficult to assess unless you're in his college coach's head.
You move your team 250 yards in 60 plays, and you've probably failed miserably. But 350 yards in 60 plays, you're doing well. How does that work and where does the quarterback figure in all of that?
The secret of success might be in discovering that there are some quarterbacks who would thrive with your coach but have never been given the keys to the car. As Brady said recently, if not for the tuck rule, it's entirely possible he might never have done much of anything in the NFL.
|