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I would add a few things that have helped me here...
At year 4 players start wanting the big payday...while your aging stars 8 or 9 year veterans but with still good marks, start taking pay cuts "per year" in exchange for another year, often...if you catch them in between seasons.
I avoid a lot of the drama and keep under the cap almost entirely without losing any of my big name guys, just by renegotiating before the season when they still have a couple of years...waiting until they hit free agency adds a lot to the pricetag.
The tradeoff is that sometimes I pay for a player with high volatility that just crashes and burns....but that hasnt happened any more than it does on the free agency market.
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