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Brian Swartz · 06-14-2016, 12:40 PM

2046 Preview

These ratings are using the new formula as discussed in the tips and tactics thread. As such, I can't compare year-to-year improvement as I used the old formula at that time.

1. Anil Mehul(85%, 8.62) -- The third-best player in the world on paper, having the kind of 2045 Mehul had was a display of determination and competitiveness. His career has now wildly surpassed my expectations if he doesn't win another match, but I think he's got a few victories left in him yet

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2. Antonin Iglar(85%, 8.73) -- Iglar should still be the best hardcourt player in the world. As mentioned it's about how much drive he has left and how much he adds to his legacy now. Several months younger than Mehul, he is actually slightly 'older' in tennis terms due to faster aging, but that has only diminished his advantadge. It hasn't vanished completely, last year's results on the court notwithstanding.

3. Girish Girsh(92%, 8.78) -- Girsh has been the world's best player on paper for several months now. In terms of the dry, abstract analysis, this should also be his best year in terms of level of play at least.

The top three are very interesting here. It's the first time since I started playing in this world 15 game years ago that I can legitimately say all three of them could easily be #1 this season. Girsh may be the best on paper but being third in the rankings means seeding is against him for the time being, and he has relatively speaking been an underachiever.

4. Bjorn Benda(79%, 8.35) -- Benda still has an elite serve and maximum clay proficiency. Increasingly though, the other aspects just aren't there anymore.

5. Gustavo Caratti(92%, 8.39) -- Like Girsh and the others in this age range, this should be Caratti's objectively best prime year. Time to strike while the iron is hot, or more specifically before his power erodes any further as it is already starting to do. Not quite an elite player from a technical point of view but he's getting closer. I expect Caratti to be fourth this year, getting past Benda but still well back of the Big Three. Even that is not assured.

6. Pierce Gaskell(84%, 8.43) -- There's no surer sign that a manager thinks a player is done in singles than when they start investing in doubles. Looks like Gaskell is making that step. Objectively you can see he's every bit as good as Caratti and Benda, but overplaying has bred premature defeats so consistently that I'd expect more of the same. He has virtually no real chance of matching them.

7. Elias Trulsen(91%, 8.34) -- Nobody in the world has a better serve, and his speed and mental game are unquestionably elite as well. Too much time spent on doubles earlier in his career, and an inability to compete with the best from the baseline prevent Trulsen from being a real contender. He's still a threat though, especially on grass.

8. Mugur Kinczllers(89%, 8.34) -- Kinczllers is nearly the opposite of Trulsen. An elite player in terms of technical skill, his mental and athletic abilities are only slightly above-average. He's a little past his peak but won't decline as quickly as Gaskell and Benda will so he could yet move up a bit. This is his career-best ranking, something that can be said for much of the Top 10 right now. I expect Kinczllers to hang around in the bottom half of the Top 10 for another year, maybe two.

4 through 8 are packed together very tightly. I think strength and his current position at a strong 5th make Caratti the best of the bunch but there could be some excellent matches among this group. It'll be curious to see how it all shakes out.

9. Thiago Herrera(86%, 8.16) -- Herrera no longer has the power to mask his cement feet and the fact that he's not quite at the elite level in terms of baseline play. He's on his way out now, though he'll still snag the occasional big clay victory.

10. Perry Mockler(83%, 8.05) -- Still a pretty good baseline player, but Mockler's athleticism is actually below-average at this point and his serve is starting to fade. He's had a nice recent run of results but it's a mirage.

12. Afanasy Bereznity(95%, 8.14) -- Just now turning 24, Bereznity is still getting better. His serve is quality right now, a little more work on the baseline game would help but he's poised to jump onto the first page this year. The new Russian no. 1, he's seems clearly to be the best of the next generation at this point.

13. Agustin Herrera(94%, 8.15) -- A steady improver over the past year or two, the 'third Herrera' probably becomes Peru's best this year and the latest moderate threat on clay from that nation. He's limited by the same problem Thiago has had -- he's strong but has to compensate for slowness of foot and limited rally skills.

16. Davide Poilblan(93%, 8.32) -- Poilblan has the skills, he just needs to bounce back from a slightly disappointing '45 in which he made little progress in the rankings. Time to see results now from the young Frenchmen. On paper, the best player not presently in the Top 10. Show us.

17. Theodore Bourdet(94%, 8.18) -- The best serve in the world, even a bit better than Trulsen's, but baseline play is lacking. Usually that means sporadic results, which is what I expect here.

18. Garreth McCuskey(93%, 8.23) -- The next top American, though that transition probably won't happen this year, McCuskey has everything in spades except for a baseline game. He's woefully inadequate there, but he'll continue to rise due to his other positives.

The 'On Deck' Crew

The five players listed in the 11-18 range will all figure to reach the Top 10 eventually. They'll start making their push in earnest this year, being the next group after Girsh's 'Generation Flash' that now is ascendant. There's a lot of competition in the next group coming up, a group that includes Mooljee. All of these are just now turning 22, or will in the next several months. As always they are listed by their current ranking.

37. Hugo Jurco(99%, 7.81) -- If he only had a brain. Jurco would kill to have the meager mental game of a Kinczllers. I don't think I have seen a weaker player in the clutch who projected as a Top-10 performer.

40. Sava Cirakovic(99%, 7.76) -- Already a very good serve, decent package athletically, but Cirakovic is quite a ways behind the curve in rallying skills.

41. Tristan Benitzer(100%, 7.56) -- Technique is similar to Cirakovic, but he's physically weak. Very, very fast, but it's not enough to compensate.

44. Prakash Mooljee(99%, 8.18) -- Serve is weaker than the other players at this point but it's coming long. No question Mooljee has the best overall package, and the clarity of this fact will only continue to grow since he's the most dedicated player of the bunch. Overall I have him tied for 11th. His time to make his mark is most definitely at hand.

45. Tomas Niklas(99%, 8.14) -- Don't sleep on Niklas either. Technical skills are lagging but not too horribly, and he's an elite athlete any way you slice it. I expect him to follow Mooljee up the rankings, and not at a distance.

47. Djurdje Moicevic(99%, 7.48) -- I didn't think much of Moicevic when I first noticed him in an early-round upset of Mooljee about a year and a half ago. He's growing on me though. His talent is massive(not sure I've seen another 5.0 before) and the serve is already very good. Rally skill is horrid though(3.9/3.9 right now). I haven't seen a Top-50 player that I recall before without a skill rating well into the 4s. He seems to be a comer but needs a lot of training to really be a threat. Moicevic definitely bears watching.

48. Akihiro Sugiyama(99%, 7.31) -- Sugiyama, the top Japanese player, has been largely ignored up to this point but his accomplishments have forced me to notice him. He's several months younger than the rest of the group, having just turned 21. He also appears to be somewhat overranked, and there are weaknesses(skill, speed, endurance). He's very strong though and has a quality serve. Might stagnate this year, but if he uses his time wisely things could get interesting for him.

49. Blagota Cojanovic(100%, 7.75) -- Technique is sorely lacking but elite speed and mental toughness make Cojanovic unquestionably relevant.

The above grouping consists of 8 players ranked 37th-49th. It's quite a packed set of young pros, and they will all be trying to force their way out of the challengers and into the elite level of competition this year. If all or even most continue to improve, it will be a deep group of good if not great players that will emerge here.

57. Shreya Ujjaval(97%, 8.18) -- Ujjaval is that rare player who needs to work more on his serve, but he's every bit the equal of Mooljee/Niklas still and better than the rest of the others. He's too good to continue stagnating for long.

166. Shyam Senepathy(99%, 6.76) -- Slow, and needs to work more on his skill(3.5/3.5 presently). There are a lot of worse challenger players though and he should continue to slowly rise despite himself.

209(J). Ritwik Dudwadkar(68%, 2.98) -- Above-average speed and mental game but everything else is a major work in progress at such a young age.

06-14-2016, 12:40 PM	#392
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2046 Preview These ratings are using the new formula as discussed in the tips and tactics thread. As such, I can't compare year-to-year improvement as I used the old formula at that time. 1. Anil Mehul(85%, 8.62) -- The third-best player in the world on paper, having the kind of 2045 Mehul had was a display of determination and competitiveness. His career has now wildly surpassed my expectations if he doesn't win another match, but I think he's got a few victories left in him yet . 2. Antonin Iglar(85%, 8.73) -- Iglar should still be the best hardcourt player in the world. As mentioned it's about how much drive he has left and how much he adds to his legacy now. Several months younger than Mehul, he is actually slightly 'older' in tennis terms due to faster aging, but that has only diminished his advantadge. It hasn't vanished completely, last year's results on the court notwithstanding. 3. Girish Girsh(92%, 8.78) -- Girsh has been the world's best player on paper for several months now. In terms of the dry, abstract analysis, this should also be his best year in terms of level of play at least. The top three are very interesting here. It's the first time since I started playing in this world 15 game years ago that I can legitimately say all three of them could easily be #1 this season. Girsh may be the best on paper but being third in the rankings means seeding is against him for the time being, and he has relatively speaking been an underachiever. 4. Bjorn Benda(79%, 8.35) -- Benda still has an elite serve and maximum clay proficiency. Increasingly though, the other aspects just aren't there anymore. 5. Gustavo Caratti(92%, 8.39) -- Like Girsh and the others in this age range, this should be Caratti's objectively best prime year. Time to strike while the iron is hot, or more specifically before his power erodes any further as it is already starting to do. Not quite an elite player from a technical point of view but he's getting closer. I expect Caratti to be fourth this year, getting past Benda but still well back of the Big Three. Even that is not assured. 6. Pierce Gaskell(84%, 8.43) -- There's no surer sign that a manager thinks a player is done in singles than when they start investing in doubles. Looks like Gaskell is making that step. Objectively you can see he's every bit as good as Caratti and Benda, but overplaying has bred premature defeats so consistently that I'd expect more of the same. He has virtually no real chance of matching them. 7. Elias Trulsen(91%, 8.34) -- Nobody in the world has a better serve, and his speed and mental game are unquestionably elite as well. Too much time spent on doubles earlier in his career, and an inability to compete with the best from the baseline prevent Trulsen from being a real contender. He's still a threat though, especially on grass. 8. Mugur Kinczllers(89%, 8.34) -- Kinczllers is nearly the opposite of Trulsen. An elite player in terms of technical skill, his mental and athletic abilities are only slightly above-average. He's a little past his peak but won't decline as quickly as Gaskell and Benda will so he could yet move up a bit. This is his career-best ranking, something that can be said for much of the Top 10 right now. I expect Kinczllers to hang around in the bottom half of the Top 10 for another year, maybe two. 4 through 8 are packed together very tightly. I think strength and his current position at a strong 5th make Caratti the best of the bunch but there could be some excellent matches among this group. It'll be curious to see how it all shakes out. 9. Thiago Herrera(86%, 8.16) -- Herrera no longer has the power to mask his cement feet and the fact that he's not quite at the elite level in terms of baseline play. He's on his way out now, though he'll still snag the occasional big clay victory. 10. Perry Mockler(83%, 8.05) -- Still a pretty good baseline player, but Mockler's athleticism is actually below-average at this point and his serve is starting to fade. He's had a nice recent run of results but it's a mirage. 12. Afanasy Bereznity(95%, 8.14) -- Just now turning 24, Bereznity is still getting better. His serve is quality right now, a little more work on the baseline game would help but he's poised to jump onto the first page this year. The new Russian no. 1, he's seems clearly to be the best of the next generation at this point. 13. Agustin Herrera(94%, 8.15) -- A steady improver over the past year or two, the 'third Herrera' probably becomes Peru's best this year and the latest moderate threat on clay from that nation. He's limited by the same problem Thiago has had -- he's strong but has to compensate for slowness of foot and limited rally skills. 16. Davide Poilblan(93%, 8.32) -- Poilblan has the skills, he just needs to bounce back from a slightly disappointing '45 in which he made little progress in the rankings. Time to see results now from the young Frenchmen. On paper, the best player not presently in the Top 10. Show us. 17. Theodore Bourdet(94%, 8.18) -- The best serve in the world, even a bit better than Trulsen's, but baseline play is lacking. Usually that means sporadic results, which is what I expect here. 18. Garreth McCuskey(93%, 8.23) -- The next top American, though that transition probably won't happen this year, McCuskey has everything in spades except for a baseline game. He's woefully inadequate there, but he'll continue to rise due to his other positives. The 'On Deck' Crew The five players listed in the 11-18 range will all figure to reach the Top 10 eventually. They'll start making their push in earnest this year, being the next group after Girsh's 'Generation Flash' that now is ascendant. There's a lot of competition in the next group coming up, a group that includes Mooljee. All of these are just now turning 22, or will in the next several months. As always they are listed by their current ranking. 37. Hugo Jurco(99%, 7.81) -- If he only had a brain. Jurco would kill to have the meager mental game of a Kinczllers. I don't think I have seen a weaker player in the clutch who projected as a Top-10 performer. 40. Sava Cirakovic(99%, 7.76) -- Already a very good serve, decent package athletically, but Cirakovic is quite a ways behind the curve in rallying skills. 41. Tristan Benitzer(100%, 7.56) -- Technique is similar to Cirakovic, but he's physically weak. Very, very fast, but it's not enough to compensate. 44. Prakash Mooljee(99%, 8.18) -- Serve is weaker than the other players at this point but it's coming long. No question Mooljee has the best overall package, and the clarity of this fact will only continue to grow since he's the most dedicated player of the bunch. Overall I have him tied for 11th. His time to make his mark is most definitely at hand. 45. Tomas Niklas(99%, 8.14) -- Don't sleep on Niklas either. Technical skills are lagging but not too horribly, and he's an elite athlete any way you slice it. I expect him to follow Mooljee up the rankings, and not at a distance. 47. Djurdje Moicevic(99%, 7.48) -- I didn't think much of Moicevic when I first noticed him in an early-round upset of Mooljee about a year and a half ago. He's growing on me though. His talent is massive(not sure I've seen another 5.0 before) and the serve is already very good. Rally skill is horrid though(3.9/3.9 right now). I haven't seen a Top-50 player that I recall before without a skill rating well into the 4s. He seems to be a comer but needs a lot of training to really be a threat. Moicevic definitely bears watching. 48. Akihiro Sugiyama(99%, 7.31) -- Sugiyama, the top Japanese player, has been largely ignored up to this point but his accomplishments have forced me to notice him. He's several months younger than the rest of the group, having just turned 21. He also appears to be somewhat overranked, and there are weaknesses(skill, speed, endurance). He's very strong though and has a quality serve. Might stagnate this year, but if he uses his time wisely things could get interesting for him. 49. Blagota Cojanovic(100%, 7.75) -- Technique is sorely lacking but elite speed and mental toughness make Cojanovic unquestionably relevant. The above grouping consists of 8 players ranked 37th-49th. It's quite a packed set of young pros, and they will all be trying to force their way out of the challengers and into the elite level of competition this year. If all or even most continue to improve, it will be a deep group of good if not great players that will emerge here. 57. Shreya Ujjaval(97%, 8.18) -- Ujjaval is that rare player who needs to work more on his serve, but he's every bit the equal of Mooljee/Niklas still and better than the rest of the others. He's too good to continue stagnating for long. 166. Shyam Senepathy(99%, 6.76) -- Slow, and needs to work more on his skill(3.5/3.5 presently). There are a lot of worse challenger players though and he should continue to slowly rise despite himself. 209(J). Ritwik Dudwadkar(68%, 2.98) -- Above-average speed and mental game but everything else is a major work in progress at such a young age.