Severe Weather

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It is the angle coming in. The system is going west to east. If it hits south, that means the NW part of the storm hits Tampa.

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Not as it's coming in. It's the NE bulleye. Once it hits and begins to move past, I agree. But yu'd much rather it be north than south on approach.

[GrantDawg]

What I mean by hitting South is the eye is going to be completely south of Tampa. Not a bullseye. That would be the west side of the storm hitting Tampa.

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[GrantDawg]

The worst surge of the storm is going to be south of the storm. You want to be on on the north end of the storm, not the south end.

"The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves," the NHC said in a Monday afternoon advisory. "Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances." *

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[Silver Owl]

My niece, her husband and 4yr old daughter is going to be right in the middle of this thing. My sister has been begging them to get out but my nieces husbands mother has convinced them that it isn't going to be as bad as the experts say.
So they are staying ... in a trailer home. People are fucking idiots !!!

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Silver Owl

My niece, her husband and 4yr old daughter is going to be right in the middle of this thing. My sister has been begging them to get out but my nieces husbands mother has convinced them that it isn't going to be as bad as the experts say.
So they are staying ... in a trailer home. People are fucking idiots !!!

Trailer park or just a single trailer? I mean either way is dangerous but I know there are people riding out the storm in a trailer park about three miles down the road from me who have ridden out more than a few storms since I have been here though none as strong as this one. Again not saying that it is not dangerous it may be a case of you don't know what you don't know. But if it is a trailer park, it is just one more thing they are going through together.

Also when you say "in the middle of this thing" do you mean where the eye might be passing over or just in the Tampa Bay area because all of the reports I see talk about the storm hitting the Tampa Bay area. I am technically in the Tampa Bay area. My forecast looks nothing like what is expected in Lakewood Ranch where my sister in law lives which is much closer to Sarasota than Tampa but is still consider a part of the Tampa Bay media market.

I understand what it looks like from the outside but more often than not there is a bit of a method behind the madness. There is a great deal of madness behind the madness as well just to be clear.

[GrantDawg]

I still remember the devastation that Andrew did to those trailer parks in Homestead. Of course, that hit at Cat 5.

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Silver Owl

My niece, her husband and 4yr old daughter is going to be right in the middle of this thing. My sister has been begging them to get out but my nieces husbands mother has convinced them that it isn't going to be as bad as the experts say.
So they are staying ... in a trailer home. People are fucking idiots !!!

Ugh. Beyond irresponsible with a 4 year old. Hope they aren't in an evacuation zone. Prayers for them

[flere-imsaho]

A lot of people are going to die because we've made a fetish out of ignoring actual trained and knowledgeable people in this country.

[CrimsonFox]

An old friend of the family that my mother knows lives in an apartment in Orlando and swears that she'll be fine and is not leaving.

[CrimsonFox]

Something I've heard on facebook is that the roads are now clogged with people and it is too late to leave if you haven't. That the traffic has moved 6 miles in 11 hours. Anyone there verify this kind of thing?

[GrantDawg]

Milton is still a Cat 5, but it dies look like it is going through an eye wall change right now. That will tend to slow it down about 20mph, but it will also make the wind field even bigger. They are saying it is likely to hit at a 4, and the track is looking like right between Tampa and Sarasota. It is going to be really, really bad. That is still likely a bit better than a direct hit or a hit north of the bay, but at this strength and size, it is going to be a monster.

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[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Something I've heard on facebook is that the roads are now clogged with people and it is too late to leave if you haven't. That the traffic has moved 6 miles in 11 hours. Anyone there verify this kind of thing?

That was definitely the case yesterday but at this point the roads are pretty much empty based on the traffic cameras I am seeing.

EDIT: That does not mean it is not too late for some people to leave. Many of the bridges to places like St. Pete and some of the barrier islands are already closed.

[Silver Owl]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Trailer park or just a single trailer? I mean either way is dangerous but I know there are people riding out the storm in a trailer park about three miles down the road from me who have ridden out more than a few storms since I have been here though none as strong as this one. Again not saying that it is not dangerous it may be a case of you don't know what you don't know. But if it is a trailer park, it is just one more thing they are going through together.

Also when you say "in the middle of this thing" do you mean where the eye might be passing over or just in the Tampa Bay area because all of the reports I see talk about the storm hitting the Tampa Bay area. I am technically in the Tampa Bay area. My forecast looks nothing like what is expected in Lakewood Ranch where my sister in law lives which is much closer to Sarasota than Tampa but is still consider a part of the Tampa Bay media market.

I understand what it looks like from the outside but more often than not there is a bit of a method behind the madness. There is a great deal of madness behind the madness as well just to be clear.

They are in a single trailer in the St. Augustine area. The adults can make the decision to stay if they want to stay but when they are putting a 4yr old at risk when they have options doesn't make any sense to me.

[miami_fan]

Be prepared for the pictures coming out of some areas to beyond devastating. Much like Helene, we are already getting rain from a separate system ironically the system that is supposed to weaken Milton. Some areas are going to get 4 to 6 inches of rain BEFORE they start getting the impact from Milton's rain. Also we have piles and piles of debris from Helene that are sitting on roadside all over the places. Here is a quick image search to give you an idea of what will be flying over the next 24-36 hours.

helene debris pickup - Google Search

[Edward64]

Some pretty scary stuff.

Stay safe.

[Lathum]

Florida prisons refusing to evacuate. One is in Zona A, a mandatory evacuation zone that is supposed to see 12 feet of storm surge.

I am torn on this. logistically seems like it would be a nightmare and a public safety concern. On the flip side these are still people. I guess fewer structures are better equipped to handle a storm like this than a prison.

[Thomkal]

I have two brothers in Florida, one on each coast-they are both staying. Those of you in Milton's path are in my thoughts-stay safe everyone!

[Ksyrup]

Max winds are down to 130mph, so it's weakening as forecasted. Not much solace for what's coming, but better than the alternative.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Florida prisons refusing to evacuate. One is in Zona A, a mandatory evacuation zone that is supposed to see 12 feet of storm surge.

I am torn on this. logistically seems like it would be a nightmare and a public safety concern. On the flip side these are still people. I guess fewer structures are better equipped to handle a storm like this than a prison.

on the other hand....once the water gets in they will all drown.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Be prepared for the pictures coming out of some areas to beyond devastating. Much like Helene, we are already getting rain from a separate system ironically the system that is supposed to weaken Milton. Some areas are going to get 4 to 6 inches of rain BEFORE they start getting the impact from Milton's rain. Also we have piles and piles of debris from Helene that are sitting on roadside all over the places. Here is a quick image search to give you an idea of what will be flying over the next 24-36 hours.

helene debris pickup - Google Search

Yeah I've been seeing the mountains and hills of furniture all over the place. Milton is gonna play tennis with that debris. Gonna smash holes in places and then the surge will fill it.

[GrantDawg]

Yet another way social media breeds morons...

I do not think it’s an accident that a lot of the people refusing to evacuate are professional content creators. they know they’ll never have this many eyeballs on them ever again pic.twitter.com/8xSYQwUIx5

— rebecca jennings (@rebexxxxa) October 9, 2024

[RainMaker]

Even if you didn't think the storm would be that bad and life threatening, I still think it'd be miserable to stay. You're going to have no power for awhile and it's going to be muggy as all hell without A/C. Just feels like getting out of town for a few days and crashing in a nice hotel would be preferable to me.

[Lathum]

I was reading tons of people, I suspect ones with means, flock to Disney in these scenarios.

https://www.newsweek.com/families-fl...oaches-1966318

[Ghost Econ]

My daughter has a friend who is leaving for Disney tomorrow. They go like 5 times a year, no sure why they don't cancel.

[Ksyrup]

Are the resorts separate from the parks, because I saw yesterday that the parks were closing today at 2pm?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Even if you didn't think the storm would be that bad and life threatening, I still think it'd be miserable to stay. You're going to have no power for awhile and it's going to be muggy as all hell without A/C. Just feels like getting out of town for a few days and crashing in a nice hotel would be preferable to me.

My wife and I where talking about this last night. We would definitely get out if we were in that situation right now, but we have lived through times when the bank account was bare, we worked for people who would expect us to work if there was any chance we could, and wouldn't pay us for days off even if our place of work closed. Not even that far in the past, it would have been a real hardship to leave for any amount of time. I would think if we were in a mandatory evac area, we would have at least gone to a shelter. IDK if we wouldn't have tried to ride it out if not in a mandatory ecvac just for fear of financial set back.