POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Lathum]

Trump just jumped ahead in North Carolina.

It is all unravelling.

[Brian Swartz]

Virginia is my favorite 'fake news' state. Looks close at first, then banks left.

[Brian Swartz]

Big chunk of urban Harris vote just added in Georgia, cut Trump's lead in half, still over a third of the vote outstanding.

[Brian Swartz]

The Mitten is about to close. Harris needs you, Michigan. Don't do something stupid.

[GrantDawg]

Looks like the bigger redder counties in Georgia are not shifting that much pro-Trump as the final totals hit, but the turn out is higher. If the blue counties match the turn out increases with some percentage increases, Harris can win. It looks like it will be less than one percent one way are another.

[BishopMVP]

Polymarket has jumped from 57 to 73 cents for Trump in the last hour. I think it was being manipulated some before tonight, not sure if tonight is a really bad sign or a really good arbitrage opportunity if you still think it's closer to 50/50

[Brian Swartz]

Ohio Trump is +5, 150k margin and steadily climbing. Looks like a mild blue shift, false hope there.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Trump just jumped ahead in North Carolina.

It is all unravelling.

A lot of people skipped the Presodential race and just voted in downballot ones.

[Brian Swartz]

Really doesn't look to me like the Selzer Shift happened. It's back to hoping for a close win that doesn't open the door to stupid amounts of legit controversy.

[Ksyrup]

I don't know how up to date it is, but the WaPo map is showing Fulton County R+3 over 2020 with 70% reported.

[Young Drachma]

I think palling around with Cheney was their only strategically questionable move, not sure who that's supposed to appeal to in 2024 and it alienates the sort of turnout you need.

But until she loses a state Biden won 2020, the alarm shouldn't start.

[Brian Swartz]

Early numbers from Michigan show a significant red shift in SE Michigan. That would be bad.

[Brian Swartz]

I haven't seen any significant bad news out of Pennsylvania.

[Young Drachma]

I think historically the early numbers come in early and the blue big counties come later, the real risk here is the media wanting to call it early shades of 2000 and try to make it seem like cheating when she closes the gap. There's no chance he's making up Biden's margin from 2020 in the popular vote.

[Lathum]

Virginia is becoming troubling

[kingfc22]

When you sort The NY Times map by “shift from 2020” it’s basically all red across the entire map.

Like another poster said earlier. Feels a lot like 2016

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Polymarket has jumped from 57 to 73 cents for Trump in the last hour. I think it was being manipulated some before tonight, not sure if tonight is a really bad sign or a really good arbitrage opportunity if you still think it's closer to 50/50

Market futures have crept up from about .05 to now .28.

Nothing too earth shattering but another data point that markets is thinking Trump is going to win it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

I think palling around with Cheney was their only strategically questionable move, not sure who that's supposed to appeal to in 2024 and it alienates the sort of turnout you need.

But until she loses a state Biden won 2020, the alarm shouldn't start.

It's a pretty big one but we shall see.

Also Biden and blue MAGA will deserve blame for not allowing a competitive primary when everyone knew his brain was mush.

[larrymcg421]

.73 on PI now.

[RainMaker]

👀 CBS News Exit Poll in Michigan per our polling team: “younger voters (age 18-29) are narrowly going for Trump right now…This deficit for Harris is in large part to younger men in Michigan who are more for Trump.”

— Caitlin Huey-Burns (@CHueyBurns) November 6, 2024

[Brian Swartz]

Yeah still super-early in Michigan but there's a lot more bad news than good right now. Nothing in from Detroit so far though. If she manages to run up huge numbers there ...

[Brian Swartz]

It was around this time in the 2020 thread where people were panicking and then it started turning for Biden. If history could just go ahead and rhyme, that's be great.

[Ghost Econ]

Democrats ran a black man and it caused half the country to lose their shit. They then ran a white woman and even more lost their shit. Now Democrats ran a black woman, we should have known how it would have turned out.

[Brian Swartz]

Well that black man did win by large margins twice. Just sayin'.

[kingfc22]

She’s going to need to sweep PA, WI and MI

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

She’s going to need to sweep PA, WI and MI

That has always been the path anyway

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

Democrats ran a black man and it caused half the country to lose their shit. They then ran a white woman and even more lost their shit. Now Democrats ran a black woman, we should have known how it would have turned out.

The black man didn't run as a Republican like the women. He also wouldn't have campaigned with Liz fucking Cheney.

[Ksyrup]

CNN just reported an election official in GA said there are around 1.5M votes still outstanding, if I heard correctly.

[JPhillips]

Shameful that Trump's going to thank the Russians' bomb threats by giving them Ukraine.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

CNN just reported an election official in GA said there are around 1.5M votes still outstanding, if I heard correctly.

Gwinnett is the highest population in the state, and only has 16% in.

[larrymcg421]

DecisionDesk had Harris down to 15% in GA at one point, but she's back up to 35%

[RainMaker]

PA Exits: Trump +7 advantage among those who believe Democracy in the U.S. is threatened. https://t.co/5O3MQCJibN pic.twitter.com/2DSCQDQzBw

— Erik Telford (@ErikTelford) November 6, 2024

[Brian Swartz]

Similar story in Virginia. A lot of urban areas to go; looks like it'll be closer than '20 but Harris should hang on to it.

[GrantDawg]

Kari Lake has lost again.

[Brian Swartz]

@Rainmaker that may be the most insane thing I've ever seen.

You think democracy is in trouble and you vote for Trump? I mean, deserve what you get if that's how it goes down. I'd expect Harris to win those people by 20 but lose bad on the economy.

[Danny]

What they mean is they are worried the democrats will steal another election. Has to be people answering with that in mind

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

@Rainmaker that may be the most insane thing I've ever seen.

You think democracy is in trouble and you vote for Trump? I mean, deserve what you get if that's how it goes down. I'd expect Harris to win those people by 20 but lose bad on the economy.

100% agree. What about Harris has shown that she is a threat to Democracy?

I can see disagreeing with her policy but this stat is mind boggling.

[BishopMVP]

NC looks like a clean sweep for the D's in Governor/Lt. Gov/SecState/AG, that's not great news for Harris if she's underperforming all of them not just the one running against Mark Robinson. Charlotte still has a lot of votes left but those would be really surprising margins for the latter 3 if a Dem shift comes in enough for Kamala to win it.

[Brian Swartz]

Potential problems in Wisconsin, Dane County (Madison) not going as well as '20, and the same rural redshift as we've seen elsewhere.

[RainMaker]

She toured the country with the daughter of the guy who helped steal the 2000 election.

I don't think things are as dire for Harris as some of you think but I can't stress how fucking stupid the decision to cater to the most unpopular politicians in the country was. Especially politicians that made her not seem serious about the issues she was running on.

[NobodyHere]

Ugh, NBC says Trump has won Ohio. I'm going to take a big drink.

Fuck you my fellow Buckeye voters.

[Lathum]

We're going to spiral into authoritarian rule, pull out of NATO, and become an isolationist nation because eggs are .50 more expensive.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Ugh, NBC says Trump has won Ohio. I'm going to take a big drink.

Fuck you my fellow Buckeye voters.

I didn't vote for him.

[GrantDawg]

This is looking like 2020. The numbers in the counties shifted, but the outcome is going to be right there.



[Ksyrup]

Democracy and Economy seem to be the 2 top issues, and when you figure in that GOPers are a decent chunk of the "Democracy" issue voters and you'd expect the Economy issue to break strongly against Harris, that's a tough 1-2 punch.

[Brian Swartz]

Good info GrantDawg, thanks.

To me it looks right now that Harris wins Pennsylvania and Virginia (PA is close now in the numbers, but the cities should put her over the top), Michigan will be closer than expected, and if current trends hold she's in trouble in Wisconsin.

Potentially Georgia, Michigan, and who knows where else (Arizona likes not reporting results for half of forever). Right now it looks to me like we don't know the winner tonight.