Israeli-Hamas War (Oct 2023)

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Reading some people that know the region well, they are questioning how well and effectively Hezbollah can go on. They say Nasrallah was basically the only leader that could keep the organization together, and the one that Iran had the most faith in. Now in the matter of days they completely severed the head off the snake.

Those people do not know the region well, good lord.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Those people do not know the region well, good lord.

I'm glad you know better than actual Lebanese people, but I wouldn't expect any less.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm glad you know better than actual Lebanese people, but I wouldn't expect any less.

It's literally a guerilla group known for its flexibility and "next man up" structure. People said the same thing after al-Musawi was killed as well as many others. They just keep getting stronger because the West hasn't figured out how these groups operate and why they're successful.

But hey, maybe this will be the time they'll be right. Broken clocks and all that.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's literally a guerilla group known for its flexibility and "next man up" structure. People said the same thing after al-Musawi was killed as well as many others. They just keep getting stronger because the West hasn't figured out how these groups operate and why they're successful.

But hey, maybe this will be the time they'll be right. Broken clocks and all that.

These guys have been in leadership for decades. I mean, some of them were planners of the attack on the Marines in 1983. These aren't swappable leaders that you can find in other groups. And it wasn't just one leader, it was the whole leadership group. It will take time to rebuild what they had in place without these guys. Hezbollah isn't as much a guerrilla organization as a political party with funding coming from Iran. The political influence is the thing they have lost with this.

If Nasrallah is dead, and it’s still a big if, it will have a massive impact. In 32 years he has built up the organisation in his image, as well as establishing his status as the most central non-Iranian figure in proxies network, advising Supreme Leader Khamenei on strategy >

— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) September 27, 2024

[GrantDawg]

What’s next for #Hezbollah, if #Nasrallah is killed.
- On the political level: As I said in my succession paper a few years back, not only he is the most charismatic Hezbollah leader (he speaks colloquial Arabic; not Fusha, he smiles, he jokes), and no one else does that.
- He…
— Hanin Ghaddar (@haningdr) September 27, 2024

[Edward64]

Many of the next in line are probably crippled or out of commission in the near term.

If Israel is going to invade, soon is as good of time as any.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Many of the next in line are probably crippled or out of commission in the near term.

If Israel is going to invade, soon is as good of time as any.

No time would be as good a time as any. It would be a massive mistake if they do, but it wouldn't surprise me of Netanyahu.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Many of the next in line are probably crippled or out of commission in the near term.

If Israel is going to invade, soon is as good of time as any.

On one hand, their economy is on the verge of collapse and a ground war in Lebanon could be a disaster. They're struggling against Hamas which is not in the same stratosphere in terms of fighting. But they do have air superiority and could just keep bombing endlessly if they want before going in.

On the other hand, Bibi's approval goes up with each new war they start. And it keeps him out of prison. Plus a full scale war before the election hurts Harris a lot and helps Trump, which is an added benefit for Bibi. And he can always hand Trump that Reagan moment on a ceasefire if things do go south.

My gut says full scale war is inevitable and very soon. They really won't find a better time to do it with the Hezbollah command in a state of flux.

[RainMaker]

If anyone wants to learn more about Hezbollah I highly recommend the book Warriors of God. It should be on Audible or the library apps. Well written and gives a lot of insight into the group and it's structure.

[Edward64]

Hamas' leader in Lebanon killed.

Palestinian militant group Hamas said on Monday that its leader in Lebanon Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin was killed along with some of his family members in an Israeli strike in the south of the country.

He was head of the UNRWA Teachers Union.

x.com

[GrantDawg]

There are also reports that they hit the compound of Maher al-Assad, Basher's brother. They have not confirmed whether he is alive or dead.

[Edward64]

May be starting …

Israeli ground operation in Lebanon appears to have begun, U.S. officials say

[Lathum]

Looks like Iran is gearing up. The middle east is about to explode just in time for an election. We are totally gonna get Trump.

Live updates: Israel-Hezbollah war, ground incursion in Lebanon, Gaza attacks | CNN

[RainMaker]

Iran has launched missiles into Tel Aviv and it looks like they are connecting. Don't think we've seen the Iron Dome tested in this way before.

Ground troops have invaded Lebanon and are doing raids in villages. Sounds like UN troops are going to have to retreat out of the region. Hezbollah is currently retreating.

Israel has ramped up attacks in the West Bank and has been bombing Syria and Yemen too.

A mass shooting in Jaffa. Details uncertain but reports of multiple casualties.

Oil up 5% and climbing.

Here are some vids that can be embedded. Telegram has way more. This is going to get very ugly for the world.









[GrantDawg]

IDF are reporting few casualties so far. It looks like they targeted military infrastructure , and the Iranian government referred to the strike as a "first wave." Wonder what the specific targets were? Guessing something to degrade the Iron Dome for another more destructive attack.

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[Edward64]

Israel’s response will be interesting. Joe’s also.

[GrantDawg]

Correction: Israel is claiming no injuries from the attacks. Still, it seems some missiles hit. So you have to think they hit infrastructure that had been evacuated.

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[cartman]

Sounds like pretty much a repeat of the last time they fired a volley of missiles at Israel.