2024 NFL Offseason, Free Agency, and Draft Talk

[JonInMiddleGA]

The Lawrence contract appears completely absurd, only a major leap could possibly justify it afaic.

The production difference between Lawrence & Mac Jones compared to their relative status at the moment ... it's comical.

[Ksyrup]

This is how it works though. It's all timing. Daniel Jones benefitted. Way back when, I think Joe Flacco had a similar pot o' gold fall into his lap. Teams pay because they don't want to end up without a known quantity with at least some redeeming value at QB because it could easily cost them years of competitiveness - which, I assume, either offsets the contract or at least makes it worth not gambling on an unknown future by letting him walk.

Dak's going to probably set the market at this point. He's better than Lawrence, but he's not that good. Funny enough, every Cowboys fan I know IRL wants him gone.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

He's better than Lawrence, but he's not that good. Funny enough, every Cowboys fan I know IRL wants him gone.

That's the part I wonder about. Do the Cowboys roll the dice and move on? Or do they pony up? I sort of lean toward them rolling the dice.

[Danny]

He needs to improve for sure. So far his careee numbers and performance match up almost exactly to Gardner Minshew

[albionmoonlight]

Kamara holding out.

Smart move by him. He gets ~$10 million base this year, and then he's a pretty obvious cut next year. And RBs age poorly--and older RBs get paid with that in mind.

And the coaching staff is in win-now mode to keep their jobs.

So this is his last and best chance to try and squeeze a bit more money out of the team.

[JPhillips]

I've said it before, but this deal is the hardest decision for a GM. It's easy to offer the mega-deal to a superstar and it's easy to cut the guy you think you can replace easily. The hard decision is whether to pay the second tier guy who probably won't get you to a championship but also is likely irreplaceable in the short term. The incentives for the GM almost always lead to paying the player and hoping things turn out well because the other choice almost certainly means more losses next season.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

The Lawrence contract appears completely absurd, only a major leap could possibly justify it afaic.

The production difference between Lawrence & Mac Jones compared to their relative status at the moment ... it's comical.

Page 1:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

If you don't pay Goff, Tagovailoa, Cousins, etc... you'll end up with someone like O'Connell, Howell, Ridder, or Pickett, if you're lucky.

And while theoretically the former group can get you the results of a Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Jackson, etc... if you also have a complimentary weapon or two and/or an offensive mastermind at HC or OC, that's not going to be true with the latter group.

So, super-simple, it's supply and demand, and less than half of the league has QBs that can get their teams to the playoffs and be a somewhat legitimate threat once there.

So, you've got to pay those guys or tear it down and try to draft one. But if you've built an otherwise strong team (DET, MIA, MIN are decent examples) that's a lot of sunk cost to punt on. I would imagine it's really hard to tell an owner or a fanbase "yeah, we might be in the top half of the league and with a lucky break or two we're in the Super Bowl, but the chances aren't high, so we're going to get rid of everyone and tank to take our chances on a franchise QB in the draft."

It's just simple supply-and-demand. If we're being pretty generous, there are around 16 QBs who can be a big part of getting you to the playoffs or better, and that includes a bunch that are going to need a really good team and staff around them for this to happen. All the teams without one of these QBs is looking at non-playoff mediocrity at best, to their QB being actively detrimental to their ability to win at worst.


Now, while I realize Lawrence has similar stats to Jones & Minshew (or whatever), the other factor in this is the pretty widespread idea that he's still salvageable, based on a) his college pedigree, b) an assumption that his year with Meyer set him back and c) whatever flashes of competence people want to look up on youtube.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Page 1:




It's just simple supply-and-demand. If we're being pretty generous, there are around 16 QBs who can be a big part of getting you to the playoffs or better, and that includes a bunch that are going to need a really good team and staff around them for this to happen. All the teams without one of these QBs is looking at non-playoff mediocrity at best, to their QB being actively detrimental to their ability to win at worst.


Now, while I realize Lawrence has similar stats to Jones & Minshew (or whatever), the other factor in this is the pretty widespread idea that he's still salvageable, based on a) his college pedigree, b) an assumption that his year with Meyer set him back and c) whatever flashes of competence people want to look up on youtube.

Honestly, he just looks it. Everything about him from size to arm strength to his ability to hit tight holes. His talents makes him look like he should be an S-tier quarterback. I can see how a team can believe he is going to put it together.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

whatever flashes of competence people want to look up on youtube.

Which fits what I said, he has to take a major leap to justify the deal.

They believe he will.

If he doesn't, they'll end up with a new GM.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

If he doesn't, they'll end up with a new GM.

Think you forgot their GM was Trent (cousin) Baalke. It's going to take a lot more than that to get him fired.

Lawrence was pretty good last year until the injuries started piling up. I think he also leads the NFL in drop rate by his receivers over the past 3 years and led the NFL in EPA lost due to dropped passes last year. He still has too many fumbles and interceptions that are his fault, but I think he can reduce those.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Which fits what I said, he has to take a major leap to justify the deal.

They believe he will.

If he doesn't, they'll end up with a new GM.

I'm curious how the deal is structured. Is it one of those where most of the guaranteed money is in the first 3 years? If so, that isn't that bad considering he was going to have a couple years of rope anyway.

There's also a $30 million jump in the salary cap next season and I think it's projected go up maybe another $20 million in 2025. So maybe it's just a contract that won't look too bad in the later years if it keeps increasing.

I don't know. It's such a weird spot for teams who have average QBs with potential because it's so hard to go back to the drawing board at that position. You almost have to pay it and pray they pan out.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Kamara holding out.

Smart move by him. He gets ~$10 million base this year, and then he's a pretty obvious cut next year. And RBs age poorly--and older RBs get paid with that in mind.

And the coaching staff is in win-now mode to keep their jobs.

So this is his last and best chance to try and squeeze a bit more money out of the team.

I sort of get it but also with how little running backs are getting, $10 million for a season is a lot of money and maybe you're better off just playing it out. I see no reason why the Saints would budge since his production has been tapering off.

[dubb93]

I know this means nothing until they start playing games but I saw breakdown the other day of NFL offensive lines in the NFL that had the Jags at 30. It’s never going to be easy to produce when your WRs are leading the league in drops and you also have the worst offensive line in the conference. Maybe they should just go ahead and fire the GM now.

[RainMaker]

Bill Belichick, 72, is dating 24-year-old former cheerleader

[sovereignstar v2]

I have more respect for Mike Zimmer. He's a MILF kind of guy

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Bill Belichick, 72, is dating 24-year-old former cheerleader

"The two bonded over a philosophy project Hudson had been working on and exchanged contact information after landing"


Uh-huh. Sure they did.

[Ksyrup]

Pondering what is the meaning of "We're on to Cincinnati"?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Bill Belichick, 72, is dating 24-year-old former cheerleader

Just as long as its consensual, both adults, he's not married, more power to him.

One thing I've learn is ... life is short.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Bill Belichick, 72, is dating 24-year-old former cheerleader

insert "Bellichek ia deflating" joke